J1 League · Regular Season - 9
Kashima 2–0 Gamba Osaka
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 10:00 UTC · Mercari Stadium, Kashima
KashimaTeam 1821Gamba OsakaTeam 1659We gave Kashima 54% to win: they did.
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 54% · 25% · 21%(Kashima · draw · Gamba Osaka)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the result 2–0 had 9%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Kashima €1.6M, Gamba Osaka €610K.
- All 11 of Gamba Osaka's expected starters were past their position's peak age.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Kashima
8th in J1 League · 13 pts from 8
- 19 SepDKawasaki Frontale J1 League1863
- 15 SepWNewcastle Jets AFC Champions League1830
- 11 SepLVissel Kobe J1 League1858
- 6 SepLUrawa J1 League1880
- 2 SepLMito Hollyhock J1 League1901
Gamba Osaka
16th in J1 League · 6 pts from 8
- 20 SepLVissel Kobe J1 League1673
- 15 SepWCông An Nhân Dân AFC Champions League1676
- 12 SepLFC Tokyo J1 League1662
- 6 SepLJEF United Chiba J1 League1673
- 2 SepDV-varen Nagasaki J1 League1599
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kashima | 13 /8 | 64.0 | 8% | 46% | 0% | 5th |
| Gamba Osaka | 6 /8 | 42.7 | 0% | <1% | 21% | 16th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Kashima · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1931
Gamba Osaka · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1756
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Kashima: balanced profile (how Toru Oniki plays) · Gamba Osaka: balanced profile (how Tomokazu Myojin plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.