J1 League · Regular Season - 13
Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 06:00 UTC · Mercari Stadium, Kashima
Kashima host Cerezo Osaka on Sat 31 Oct 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Kashima 55%, draw 25%, Cerezo Osaka 20%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Kashima €1.6M, Cerezo Osaka €619K.
- All 11 of Cerezo Osaka's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
- Kashima are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Kashima goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–110%
- 1–010%
- 2–010%
- 0–07%
- 3–16%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Kashima 1869 · Cerezo Osaka 1699
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Kashima · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 1955
Cerezo Osaka · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 1733
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Kashima
6th in J1 League · 19 pts from 10
- 17 OctWV-varen Nagasaki J1 League1804
- 13 OctWCông An Nhân Dân AFC Champions League1883
- 9 OctWGamba Osaka J1 League1869
- 19 SepDKawasaki Frontale J1 League1863
- 15 SepWNewcastle Jets AFC Champions League1830
Cerezo Osaka
13th in J1 League · 12 pts from 10
- 17 OctLKawasaki Frontale J1 League1701
- 10 OctDYokohama F. Marinos J1 League1742
- 19 SepDV-varen Nagasaki J1 League1725
- 12 SepLSanfrecce Hiroshima J1 League1773
- 6 SepDTokyo Verdy J1 League1735
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kashima | 19 /10 | 66.9 | 9% | 53% | 0% | 4th |
| Cerezo Osaka | 12 /10 | 48.9 | 0% | <1% | 3% | 11th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Kashima: balanced profile (how Toru Oniki plays) · Cerezo Osaka: possession-based (how Pablo Javier Machín Díez plays)