J1 League · Regular Season - 16
JEF United Chiba vs Nagoya Grampus
Wed 25 Nov 2026 · 10:00 UTC · Fukuda Denshi Arena, Chiba
JEF United Chiba host Nagoya Grampus on Wed 25 Nov 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: JEF United Chiba 35%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 36%.
- Average value of the expected XI: JEF United Chiba €376K, Nagoya Grampus €520K.
- JEF United Chiba's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -2.3 over 180 days.
- All 11 of Nagoya Grampus' expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. JEF United Chiba goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- 1–08%
- 2–18%
- 0–07%
- Other scores47%
Team Elo: JEF United Chiba 1573 · Nagoya Grampus 1644
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
JEF United Chiba · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.4 (Average) · Elo 1761
Nagoya Grampus · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.6 (Average) · Elo 1710
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
JEF United Chiba
17th in J1 League · 13 pts from 14
- 8 NovWMito Hollyhock J1 League1547
- 1 NovWAvispa Fukuoka J1 League1457
- 25 OctDCerezo Osaka J1 League1504
- 21 OctLUrawa J1 League1449
- 17 OctDYokohama F. Marinos J1 League1487
Nagoya Grampus
13th in J1 League · 14 pts from 14
- 7 NovLKyoto Sanga J1 League1687
- 31 OctLVissel Kobe J1 League1665
- 25 OctDYokohama F. Marinos J1 League1694
- 21 OctDCerezo Osaka J1 League1677
- 17 OctWKashiwa Reysol J1 League1635
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JEF United Chiba | 13 /14 | 37.9 | 0% | 0% | 40% | 18th |
| Nagoya Grampus | 14 /14 | 44.1 | 0% | <1% | 10% | 12th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
JEF United Chiba: balanced profile (how Yoshiyuki Kobayashi plays) · Nagoya Grampus: balanced profile (how Mihailo Petrovic plays)