J1 League · Regular Season - 14
JEF United Chiba vs Mito Hollyhock
Sun 8 Nov 2026 · 08:00 UTC · Fukuda Denshi Arena, Chiba
JEF United Chiba host Mito Hollyhock on Sun 8 Nov 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: JEF United Chiba 39%, draw 29%, Mito Hollyhock 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: JEF United Chiba €338K, Mito Hollyhock €344K.
- Home advantage makes JEF United Chiba the favourite here: it adds 5 points to their win chance.
- JEF United Chiba's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -2.0 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. JEF United Chiba goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: JEF United Chiba 1538 · Mito Hollyhock 1561
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
JEF United Chiba · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1484
Mito Hollyhock · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1657
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
JEF United Chiba
19th in J1 League · 6 pts from 11
- 21 OctLUrawa J1 League1461
- 17 OctDYokohama F. Marinos J1 League1509
- 11 OctDV-varen Nagasaki J1 League1527
- 19 SepLShimizu S-pulse J1 League1546
- 13 SepDTokyo Verdy J1 League1553
Mito Hollyhock
16th in J1 League · 9 pts from 11
- 21 OctLFagiano Okayama J1 League1544
- 17 OctLUrawa J1 League1541
- 11 OctLShimizu S-pulse J1 League1536
- 19 SepLYokohama F. Marinos J1 League1617
- 12 SepLKawasaki Frontale J1 League1595
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JEF United Chiba | 6 /11 | 32.4 | 0% | 0% | 74% | 20th |
| Mito Hollyhock | 9 /11 | 36.4 | 0% | 0% | 47% | 18th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
JEF United Chiba: balanced profile (how Yoshiyuki Kobayashi plays) · Mito Hollyhock: balanced profile (how Daisuke Kimori plays)