UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 2
Jagiellonia 3–1 Ararat-Armenia
Thu 15 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku, Bialystok
JagielloniaTeam 1788Ararat-ArmeniaTeam 1560- Kamil Jóźwiak 13'
- Rodrigo Conceição 38'
- Ousmane Sow 51'
- Zidane Banjaqui 11'
We gave Jagiellonia 62% to win: they did.
- 11'Zidane Banjaqui 1579 −9* assist Maxence Carlier 1547 −9*Ararat-Armenia:Zidane Banjaqui 1579 −9* assist Maxence Carlier 1547 −9*
- Kamil Jóźwiak 1762 +2013'Jagiellonia:Kamil Jóźwiak 1762 +20
- 17'Zhirayr Shaghoyan 1666 −12* for Zidane Banjaqui 1579 −9*Ararat-Armenia:Zhirayr Shaghoyan 1666 −12* for Zidane Banjaqui 1579 −9*
- Taras Romanczuk 1858 −9*20'Jagiellonia:Taras Romanczuk 1858 −9*
- 30'Bruno Wilson 1694 −16*Ararat-Armenia:Bruno Wilson 1694 −16*
- Rodrigo Conceição 1803 +24 assist Ferslev Anders Klynge 1750 +2938'Jagiellonia:Rodrigo Conceição 1803 +24 assist Ferslev Anders Klynge 1750 +29
- 49'Manuel Jorge da Silva CruzArarat-Armenia:Manuel Jorge da Silva Cruz
- Ousmane Sow 1744 +21 assist Jesús Imaz 1770 +1251'Jagiellonia:Ousmane Sow 1744 +21 assist Jesús Imaz 1770 +12
- 57'Elvin Tera 1576 −10*Ararat-Armenia:Elvin Tera 1576 −10*
- Jeremy Agbonifo 1665 +4 for Ousmane Sow 1744 +2166'Jagiellonia:Jeremy Agbonifo 1665 +4 for Ousmane Sow 1744 +21
- 68'Bernardo Oliveira Dias for Elvin Tera 1576 −10*Ararat-Armenia:Bernardo Oliveira Dias for Elvin Tera 1576 −10*
- 68'Karen Muradyan 1544 −13* for Luís Felipe Fernandes Rodrigues 1365 −8*Ararat-Armenia:Karen Muradyan 1544 −13* for Luís Felipe Fernandes Rodrigues 1365 −8*
- Dušan Stojinović 1835 −6* for Kamil Jóźwiak 1762 +2068'Jagiellonia:Dušan Stojinović 1835 −6* for Kamil Jóźwiak 1762 +20
- Eryk Kozlowski 1411 −2* for Jesús Imaz 1770 +1268'Jagiellonia:Eryk Kozlowski 1411 −2* for Jesús Imaz 1770 +12
- 76'Carlos Henrique França Freires 1232 −11* for Artur Serobyan 1727 −7Ararat-Armenia:Carlos Henrique França Freires 1232 −11* for Artur Serobyan 1727 −7
- 76'Arayik Eloyan 1412 0 for Sandro Lima 1566 −15*Ararat-Armenia:Arayik Eloyan 1412 0 for Sandro Lima 1566 −15*
- Aleksandar·Cirkovic 1697 +2 for Kajetan·Szmyt 1829 +779'Jagiellonia:Aleksandar·Cirkovic 1697 +2 for Kajetan·Szmyt 1829 +7
- Sergio Lozano 1859 0 for Taras Romanczuk 1858 −9*80'Jagiellonia:Sergio Lozano 1859 0 for Taras Romanczuk 1858 −9*
- Dušan Stojinović 1835 −6*83'Jagiellonia:Dušan Stojinović 1835 −6*
- Eryk Kozlowski 1411 −2*84'Jagiellonia:Eryk Kozlowski 1411 −2*
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 62% · 23% · 15%(Jagiellonia · draw · Ararat-Armenia)
Our most likely score was 2–0 (11%); the result 3–1 had 7%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Jagiellonia €948K, Ararat-Armenia €320K.
- Jagiellonia were without 2 expected starters: N. Wojtuszek (1918) and N. Prelec (1850).
- Premier League: A. Serobyan was the highest-rated forward (1734).
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Jagiellonia
10th in Ekstraklasa · 12 pts from 9
- 10 OctLGornik Zabrze Ekstraklasa1812
- 20 SepLLegia Warszawa Ekstraklasa1811
- 16 SepLOlympiakos Piraeus UEFA Europa League1861
- 11 SepLWisla Krakow Ekstraklasa1856
- 6 SepWSlask Wroclaw Ekstraklasa1840
Ararat-Armenia
3rd in Premier League · 20 pts from 9
- 16 SepLSparta Praha UEFA Europa League1599
- 27 AugWUniversitatea Craiova UEFA Europa League1569
- 20 AugDUniversitatea Craiova UEFA Europa League1557
- 11 AugLCelje UEFA Champions League1601
- 4 AugWCelje UEFA Champions League1580
League phase outlook
From the Europa League simulation, after 1 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia | 0 /1 | 7.4 | 1.1 | 31.5 | 67.4 |
| Ararat-Armenia | 0 /1 | 5.4 | 0.1 | 10.9 | 89.0 |
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Jagiellonia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1867
Ararat-Armenia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.0 (Average) · Elo 1734
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: –
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.