UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3
Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht
Thu 22 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku, Bialystok
Jagiellonia host Anderlecht on Thu 22 Oct 2026 (UEFA Europa League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Jagiellonia 31%, draw 29%, Anderlecht 40%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Jagiellonia €1.0M, Anderlecht €3.4M.
- Jagiellonia are without 1 expected starter: N. Prelec (1850).
- Anderlecht are without 1 expected starter: I. Koutsoupias (1974).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Jagiellonia goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–19%
- 0–09%
- 1–29%
- 1–08%
- 2–18%
- Other scores43%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 0.7 pts
voetbalpoules.nl0–1expected 3.4 pts
Team Elo: Jagiellonia 1785 · Anderlecht 1952
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches; in for ruled-out starters: K. Jóźwiak for N. Prelec, T. Aasgaard for I. Koutsoupias.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Jagiellonia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1840
Anderlecht · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.0 (Good) · Elo 2020
Absences
Jagiellonia
Ruled out
- N. WojtuszekInactive1918
- N. PrelecInactive1850
- Dimitris RallisOff the roster1701
- D. DrachalOff the roster1682
- C. PolakOff the roster1610
- Z. ZalewskiOff the roster1537
Anderlecht
Ruled out
- G. BianconeHamstring Injury2042
- I. KoutsoupiasOff the roster1974
- L. HeyBroken Leg1944
- I. CamaraFoot Injury1884
- K. SardellaThigh Injury1883
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Jagiellonia
12th in Ekstraklasa · 12 pts from 10
- 18 OctLZaglebie Lubin Ekstraklasa1817
- 15 OctWArarat-Armenia UEFA Europa League1801
- 10 OctLGornik Zabrze Ekstraklasa1812
- 20 SepLLegia Warszawa Ekstraklasa1811
- 16 SepLOlympiakos Piraeus UEFA Europa League1861
Anderlecht
5th in Pro League · 16 pts from 8
- 15 OctLDinamo Zagreb UEFA Europa League1930
- 10 OctWCercle Brugge Belgium Pro League1959
- 19 SepWZulte Waregem Belgium Pro League1979
- 16 SepLLyon UEFA Europa League1964
- 11 SepWKV Mechelen Belgium Pro League1950
League phase outlook
From the Europa League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia | 3 /2 | 8.3 | 1.1 | 44.3 | 54.5 |
| Anderlecht | 0 /2 | 8.0 | 0.9 | 44.2 | 54.9 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Jagiellonia: possession-based (how Adrian Siemieniec plays) · Anderlecht: balanced profile (how Vítor Bruno Clara Santos Mota Fernandes plays)