UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3
Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk
Wed 21 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan
Inter host Shakhtar Donetsk on Wed 21 Oct 2026 (UEFA Champions League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Inter 77%, draw 15%, Shakhtar Donetsk 8%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Inter €38.1M, Shakhtar Donetsk €5.7M.
- Draw chance 15%, below the UEFA Champions League average of 23% this round.
- Serie A: A. Bastoni is the highest-rated defender (2552).
- Premier League: D. Riznyk is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2199).
- Inter's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Inter goals first.
- 2–010%
- 3–010%
- 2–19%
- 3–18%
- 1–17%
- 1–07%
- Other scores49%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com3–1expected 1.2 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 5.3 pts
Team Elo: Inter 2406 · Shakhtar Donetsk 1993
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Inter · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Good) · Elo 2527
Shakhtar Donetsk · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 2134
Absences
Inter
Ruled out
- C. JonesThigh Injury2427
- Lautaro MartínezThigh Injury2411
- J. StonesInjury2371
- B. PavardThigh Injury2255
Shakhtar Donetsk
Ruled out
- EguinaldoShoulder Injury1866
- M. ShvedOff the roster1713
- K. FesyunIllness1704
- P. ObahOff the roster1703
- T. PuzankovOff the roster1523
- Denys TvardovskyiOff the roster1504
- A. GhramInjury1468
Doubtful
- I. AzaroviKnee Injury2080
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Inter
1st in Serie A · 19 pts from 7
- 17 OctWBologna Serie A2426
- 13 OctLClub Brugge KV UEFA Champions League2419
- 10 OctWParma Serie A2342
- 19 SepDAS Roma Serie A2417
- 14 SepWUdinese Serie A2339
Shakhtar Donetsk
1st in Premier League · 24 pts from 9
- 17 OctWKolos Kovalivka Ukraine Premier League1888
- 14 OctWAEK Athens FC UEFA Champions League2058
- 9 OctWVeres Rivne Ukraine Premier League2055
- 20 SepWLNZ Cherkasy Ukraine Premier League1967
- 14 SepWChornomorets Ukraine Premier League1924
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | 0 /2 | 12.0 | 15.5 | 72.4 | 12.1 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 /2 | 9.5 | 2.7 | 52.6 | 44.8 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Inter: possession-based · creative (how Cristian Eugen Chivu plays) · Shakhtar Donetsk: possession-based · dribble-heavy (how Arda Turan plays)