Serie A · Regular Season - 6
Inter 3–0 Parma
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UTC · San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan
InterTeam 2387ParmaTeam 1898Match story
Inter · draw · ParmaBefore kick-off: 81% · 12% · 7%
Last reading, 90+2': 100% · 0% · 0%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- Petar Sučić 13'
- Hakan Çalhanoğlu 18' (pen)
- Marcus Thuram 31'
We gave Inter 81% to win: they did.
- Petar Sučić 2422 +1013'Inter:Petar Sučić 2422 +10
- Hakan Çalhanoğlu 2305 −3* (pen.)18'Inter:Hakan Çalhanoğlu 2305 −3* (pen.)
- Marcus Thuram 2442 −3* assist Henrikh Mkhitaryan 2039 +4*31'Inter:Marcus Thuram 2442 −3* assist Henrikh Mkhitaryan 2039 +4*
- Aleksandar Stankovic 2264 +5 for Hakan Çalhanoğlu 2305 −3*61'Inter:Aleksandar Stankovic 2264 +5 for Hakan Çalhanoğlu 2305 −3*
- 61'José David Romero 1837 −8* for Nesta Elphege 1576 −8*Parma:José David Romero 1837 −8* for Nesta Elphege 1576 −8*
- Ange-Yoan Bonny 2178 −5* for Pio Esposito 2366 +361'Inter:Ange-Yoan Bonny 2178 −5* for Pio Esposito 2366 +3
- Lautaro Martínez 2436 −8* for Marcus Thuram 2442 −3*61'Inter:Lautaro Martínez 2436 −8* for Marcus Thuram 2442 −3*
- 62'Simone Lontani 1694 −8* for Giovanni Fabbian 2077 −10*Parma:Simone Lontani 1694 −8* for Giovanni Fabbian 2077 −10*
- 62'Adrián Bernabé García 1982 −8* for Vincent Sierro 1958 −3Parma:Adrián Bernabé García 1982 −8* for Vincent Sierro 1958 −3
- Luis Henrique 2380 −7* for Federico Dimarco 2492 −3*73'Inter:Luis Henrique 2380 −7* for Federico Dimarco 2492 −3*
- Djed Spence 2381 −7* for Andy Diouf 2229 +573'Inter:Djed Spence 2381 −7* for Andy Diouf 2229 +5
- 78'Sascha Britschgi 1893 0 for Franco Carboni 1560 −8*Parma:Sascha Britschgi 1893 0 for Franco Carboni 1560 −8*
- 84'Matija Frigan 1742 −8* for El Bilal Toure 2033 −10*Parma:Matija Frigan 1742 −8* for El Bilal Toure 2033 −10*
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 81% · 12% · 7%(Inter · draw · Parma)
Our most likely score was 3–0 (9%), and that was the result.
- Average value of the starting XI: Inter €28.0M, Parma €5.5M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Serie A matchday 6: 456 points.
- Draw chance was 14%, below the Serie A average of 26% this round.
- Serie A: A. Bastoni was the highest-rated defender (2562).
- Inter's expected eleven was in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.5 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Inter
2nd in Serie A · 13 pts from 5
- 19 SepDAS Roma Serie A2417
- 14 SepWUdinese Serie A2339
- 8 SepLReal Madrid UEFA Champions League2386
- 5 SepWNapoli Serie A2393
- 30 AugWCagliari Serie A2387
Parma
15th in Serie A · 4 pts from 5
- 20 SepWGenoa Serie A1916
- 14 SepLComo Serie A1909
- 6 SepDMonza Serie A1978
- 29 AugLJuventus Serie A1922
- 22 AugLCagliari Serie A1926
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | 13 /5 | 81.2 | 62% | 97% | 0% | 1st |
| Parma | 4 /5 | 34.8 | 0% | 0% | 51% | 19th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Inter · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 2445
Parma · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Good) · Elo 2046
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Inter: possession-based · creative (how Cristian Eugen Chivu plays) · Parma: balanced profile (how Carlos Cuesta García plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.