Serie A · Regular Season - 8
Inter vs Fiorentina
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 11:30 UTC
Inter host Fiorentina on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Inter 64%, draw 22%, Fiorentina 15%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Inter €38.1M, Fiorentina €15.8M.
- Serie A: A. Bastoni is the highest-rated defender (2552).
- Inter's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Inter goals first.
- 2–011%
- 1–110%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–08%
- 3–17%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 1.0 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 4.6 pts
Team Elo: Inter 2406 · Fiorentina 2129
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Inter · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Good) · Elo 2527
Fiorentina · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Average) · Elo 1872
Absences
Inter
None reported
Fiorentina
Ruled out
- R. SottilBack Injury2003
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Inter
1st in Serie A · 19 pts from 7
- 17 OctWBologna Serie A2426
- 13 OctLClub Brugge KV UEFA Champions League2419
- 10 OctWParma Serie A2342
- 19 SepDAS Roma Serie A2417
- 14 SepWUdinese Serie A2339
Fiorentina
19th in Serie A · 4 pts from 7
- 18 OctLComo Serie A2121
- 10 OctLGenoa Serie A2184
- 20 SepDNapoli Serie A2102
- 15 SepWPisa Italy Coppa Italia2119
- 11 SepWVenezia Serie A2082
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | 19 /7 | 83.5 | 75% | 98% | 0% | 1st |
| Fiorentina | 4 /7 | 48.3 | 0% | <1% | 3% | 11th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Inter: possession-based · creative (how Cristian Eugen Chivu plays) · Fiorentina: balanced profile (how Paolo Vanoli plays)