UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 4
HNK Hajduk Split vs St. Truiden
Thu 26 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Stadion Poljud, Split
HNK Hajduk Split host St. Truiden on Thu 26 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa Conference League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: HNK Hajduk Split 43%, draw 28%, St. Truiden 29%.
- Average value of the expected XI: HNK Hajduk Split €1.2M, St. Truiden €2.2M.
- Home advantage makes HNK Hajduk Split the favourite here: it adds 9 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. HNK Hajduk Split goals first.
- 1–113%
- 2–19%
- 1–08%
- 2–07%
- 1–27%
- 0–07%
- Other scores49%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl2–1expected 3.5 pts
Team Elo: HNK Hajduk Split 1816 · St. Truiden 1832
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
HNK Hajduk Split · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1915
St. Truiden · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.4 (Good) · Elo 1926
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
HNK Hajduk Split
1st in HNL · 29 pts from 13
- 8 NovWNK Osijek HNL1803
- 5 NovLLincoln Red Imps FC UEFA Conference League1860
- 31 OctWHNK Gorica HNL1813
- 26 OctDIstra 1961 HNL1866
- 22 OctWFC Thun UEFA Conference League1848
St. Truiden
12th in Pro League · 11 pts from 11
- 8 NovWZulte Waregem Belgium Pro League1832
- 5 NovDBrann UEFA Conference League1799
- 1 NovLOH Leuven Belgium Pro League1843
- 25 OctLClub Brugge KV Belgium Pro League1841
- 22 OctWFC Midtjylland UEFA Conference League1819
League phase outlook
From the Conference League simulation, after 3 of 6 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Hajduk Split | 6 /3 | 9.9 | 13.7 | 82.3 | 4.0 |
| St. Truiden | 7 /3 | 9.8 | 13.1 | 86.2 | 0.7 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
HNK Hajduk Split: balanced profile (how Gonzalo García plays) · St. Truiden: possession-based (how F. De Meyer plays)