UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 1
HNK Hajduk Split 2–1 Ajax
Thu 15 Oct 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Stadion Poljud, Split
HNK Hajduk SplitTeam 1783AjaxTeam 2091- A. Sanyang 37'
- M. Soticek 55'
- D. Klaassen 53'
We gave Ajax 51% to win: HNK Hajduk Split won.
- A. Sanyang 1831 +35 assist M. Soticek 1832 +3637'HNK Hajduk Split:A. Sanyang 1831 +35 assist M. Soticek 1832 +36
- A. del Moral 1872 +2145'HNK Hajduk Split:A. del Moral 1872 +21
- 53'D. Klaassen 2089 −6 assist T. Kehrer 2194 −16Ajax:D. Klaassen 2089 −6 assist T. Kehrer 2194 −16
- M. Soticek 1832 +36 assist M. Sego 1895 +2555'HNK Hajduk Split:M. Soticek 1832 +36 assist M. Sego 1895 +25
- M. Sego 1895 +2560'HNK Hajduk Split:M. Sego 1895 +25
- L. Dendoncker 1823 +4 for A. del Moral 1872 +2169'HNK Hajduk Split:L. Dendoncker 1823 +4 for A. del Moral 1872 +21
- 76'J. Mokio 2088 0 for D. Klaassen 2089 −6Ajax:J. Mokio 2088 0 for D. Klaassen 2089 −6
- 76'O. Gloukh 2171 −2 for A. Ouazane 1727 0Ajax:O. Gloukh 2171 −2 for A. Ouazane 1727 0
- 76'L. Rosa 2191 −2 for V. Tsygankov 2100 −1Ajax:L. Rosa 2191 −2 for V. Tsygankov 2100 −1
- 77'Marcos Leonardo 2298 −2 for J. Torrents 1519 −8*Ajax:Marcos Leonardo 2298 −2 for J. Torrents 1519 −8*
- D. Melnjak 1616 +5 for S. Hrgovic 1881 +982'HNK Hajduk Split:D. Melnjak 1616 +5 for S. Hrgovic 1881 +9
- A. Sutalo 1542 +5 for A. Sanyang 1831 +3582'HNK Hajduk Split:A. Sutalo 1542 +5 for A. Sanyang 1831 +35
- C. Martin 1777 0 for M. Sego 1895 +2590+1'HNK Hajduk Split:C. Martin 1777 0 for M. Sego 1895 +25
- A. Van Hoorenbeeck 1797 −8* for K. Fayad 1726 +5490+1'HNK Hajduk Split:A. Van Hoorenbeeck 1797 −8* for K. Fayad 1726 +54
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 22% · 26% · 51%(HNK Hajduk Split · draw · Ajax)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 2–1 had 6%.
- Average value of the starting XI: HNK Hajduk Split €1.0M, Ajax €5.6M.
- Eredivisie: M. ter Stegen was the highest-rated goalkeeper (2318).
- Ajax's expected eleven was in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.0 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
HNK Hajduk Split
1st in HNL · 19 pts from 9
- 10 OctWDinamo Zagreb HNL1778
- 20 SepLHNK Rijeka HNL1786
- 13 SepWNK Slaven Belupo HNL1799
- 6 SepWRudes HNL1735
- 31 AugWNK Lokomotiva Zagreb HNL1750
Ajax
5th in Eredivisie · 15 pts from 8
- 10 OctDNEC Nijmegen Eredivisie2181
- 19 SepDExcelsior Eredivisie2179
- 15 SepWWillem II Eredivisie2137
- 12 SepWFortuna Sittard Eredivisie2149
- 5 SepLPSV Eindhoven Eredivisie2166
League phase outlook
From the Conference League simulation, after 0 of 6 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Hajduk Split | 0 /0 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 58.4 | 31.9 |
| Ajax | 0 /0 | 11.4 | 47.3 | 48.3 | 4.4 |
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
HNK Hajduk Split · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1869
Ajax · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 2252
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy · possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
HNK Hajduk Split: balanced profile (how Gonzalo Manuel García García plays) · Ajax: possession-based (how Miguel Ángel Sánchez Muñoz plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.