UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2
Getafe vs FC Lugano
Thu 22 Oct 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Coliseum, Getafe
Getafe host FC Lugano on Thu 22 Oct 2026 (UEFA Europa Conference League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Getafe 41%, draw 29%, FC Lugano 30%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Getafe €3.6M, FC Lugano €2.7M.
- Home advantage makes Getafe the favourite here: it adds 9 points to their win chance.
- Super League: D. von Ballmoos is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2070).
- FC Lugano's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 over 180 days.
- FC Lugano are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Getafe goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 0–18%
- 2–07%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.5 pts
Team Elo: Getafe 1937 · FC Lugano 1976
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Getafe · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 2022
FC Lugano · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.5 (Elite) · Elo 2122
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Getafe
15th in La Liga · 8 pts from 8
- 15 OctDUniversitatea Craiova UEFA Conference League1885
- 10 OctLBarcelona La Liga1932
- 20 SepWMalaga La Liga1940
- 17 SepLReal Betis La Liga1922
- 13 SepDDeportivo La Coruna La Liga1964
FC Lugano
1st in Super League · 28 pts from 10
- 15 OctWFK Crvena Zvezda UEFA Conference League2000
- 10 OctWFC Luzern Swiss Super League1988
- 20 SepWLausanne Swiss Super League1946
- 16 SepWFC ST. Gallen Swiss Super League1860
- 12 SepDBSC Young Boys Swiss Super League1949
League phase outlook
From the Conference League simulation, after 1 of 6 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe | 1 /1 | 8.7 | 11.9 | 74.5 | 13.6 |
| FC Lugano | 3 /1 | 11.6 | 47.5 | 49.7 | 2.8 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct · aggressive
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Getafe: direct · aggressive (how José Bordalás Jiménez plays) · FC Lugano: possession-based (how Mattia Croci-Torti plays)