UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 4
Gent vs FK Crvena Zvezda
Thu 26 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Planet Group Arena, Gent
Gent host FK Crvena Zvezda on Thu 26 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa Conference League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Gent 48%, draw 27%, FK Crvena Zvezda 25%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Gent €2.8M, FK Crvena Zvezda €3.1M.
- Super Liga: Matheus is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2049).
- Gent's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.0 over 180 days.
- FK Crvena Zvezda are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Gent goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–011%
- 2–19%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores43%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.9 pts
Team Elo: Gent 1985 · FK Crvena Zvezda 1940
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Gent · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.7 (Elite) · Elo 2108
FK Crvena Zvezda · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 2016
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Gent
3rd in Pro League · 28 pts from 11
- 8 NovWKortrijk Belgium Pro League1987
- 5 NovDKuPS UEFA Conference League1990
- 1 NovLLommel United Belgium Pro League2013
- 25 OctWAnderlecht Belgium Pro League2005
- 22 OctLSC Braga UEFA Conference League2015
FK Crvena Zvezda
1st in Super Liga · 43 pts from 15
- 8 NovWVojvodina Serbian Super Liga1890
- 5 NovWInter Club d'Escaldes UEFA Conference League1917
- 31 OctWMacva Serbian Super Liga1933
- 25 OctWOFK Beograd Serbian Super Liga1900
- 22 OctDFC Copenhagen UEFA Conference League1935
League phase outlook
From the Conference League simulation, after 3 of 6 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gent | 4 /3 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 81.6 | 5.6 |
| FK Crvena Zvezda | 4 /3 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 80.7 | 14.8 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Gent: balanced profile (how R. Demil plays) · FK Crvena Zvezda: shot-heavy · creative (how Riera plays)