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Serie A · Regular Season - 6

Genoa 2–1 Fiorentina

Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Luigi Ferraris, Genoa

Genoa crestGenoaTeam 1939
2–1
Full time
HT 2–0
Fiorentina crestFiorentinaTeam 2153

Match story

Genoa · draw · Fiorentina

Before kick-off: 22% · 27% · 51%

Live chances: Genoa 100%, draw 0%, Fiorentina 0% at 90+7'1' · 0–0 · Genoa 22%, draw 27%, Fiorentina 51%2' · 0–0 · Genoa 22%, draw 27%, Fiorentina 51%3' · 0–0 · Genoa 22%, draw 28%, Fiorentina 51%4' · 0–0 · Genoa 22%, draw 28%, Fiorentina 50%5' · 0–0 · Genoa 22%, draw 28%, Fiorentina 50%6' · 0–0 · Genoa 22%, draw 28%, Fiorentina 50%7' · 0–0 · Genoa 22%, draw 28%, Fiorentina 50%8' · 0–0 · Genoa 22%, draw 28%, Fiorentina 50%9' · 1–0 · Genoa 49%, draw 26%, Fiorentina 25%10' · 1–0 · Genoa 49%, draw 26%, Fiorentina 24%11' · 1–0 · Genoa 49%, draw 27%, Fiorentina 24%12' · 1–0 · Genoa 49%, draw 27%, Fiorentina 24%13' · 1–0 · Genoa 50%, draw 27%, Fiorentina 24%14' · 1–0 · Genoa 50%, draw 27%, Fiorentina 23%15' · 1–0 · Genoa 50%, draw 27%, Fiorentina 23%16' · 2–0 · Genoa 80%, draw 13%, Fiorentina 7%17' · 2–0 · Genoa 80%, draw 13%, Fiorentina 7%18' · 2–0 · Genoa 81%, draw 13%, Fiorentina 6%19' · 2–0 · Genoa 81%, draw 13%, Fiorentina 6%20' · 2–0 · Genoa 81%, draw 13%, Fiorentina 6%21' · 2–0 · Genoa 81%, draw 13%, Fiorentina 6%22' · 2–0 · Genoa 81%, draw 13%, Fiorentina 6%23' · 2–0 · Genoa 82%, draw 13%, Fiorentina 6%24' · 2–0 · Genoa 82%, draw 12%, Fiorentina 6%25' · 2–0 · Genoa 82%, draw 12%, Fiorentina 6%26' · 2–0 · Genoa 82%, draw 12%, Fiorentina 5%27' · 2–0 · Genoa 83%, draw 12%, Fiorentina 5%28' · 2–0 · Genoa 83%, draw 12%, Fiorentina 5%30' · 2–0 · Genoa 83%, draw 12%, Fiorentina 5%31' · 2–0 · Genoa 84%, draw 12%, Fiorentina 5%32' · 2–0 · Genoa 84%, draw 12%, Fiorentina 5%33' · 2–0 · Genoa 84%, draw 11%, Fiorentina 5%34' · 2–0 · Genoa 84%, draw 11%, Fiorentina 4%35' · 2–0 · Genoa 85%, draw 11%, Fiorentina 4%36' · 2–0 · Genoa 85%, draw 11%, Fiorentina 4%37' · 2–0 · Genoa 85%, draw 11%, Fiorentina 4%38' · 2–0 · Genoa 85%, draw 11%, Fiorentina 4%39' · 2–0 · Genoa 86%, draw 11%, Fiorentina 4%40' · 2–0 · Genoa 86%, draw 10%, Fiorentina 4%41' · 2–0 · Genoa 86%, draw 10%, Fiorentina 4%42' · 2–0 · Genoa 86%, draw 10%, Fiorentina 3%43' · 2–0 · Genoa 87%, draw 10%, Fiorentina 3%44' · 2–0 · Genoa 87%, draw 10%, Fiorentina 3%45' · 2–0 · Genoa 87%, draw 10%, Fiorentina 3%45+1' · 2–0 · Genoa 87%, draw 10%, Fiorentina 3%45+2' · 2–0 · Genoa 88%, draw 9%, Fiorentina 3%HT · 2–0 · Genoa 88%, draw 9%, Fiorentina 3%47' · 2–0 · Genoa 88%, draw 9%, Fiorentina 3%48' · 2–0 · Genoa 89%, draw 9%, Fiorentina 3%49' · 2–0 · Genoa 89%, draw 9%, Fiorentina 2%50' · 2–0 · Genoa 89%, draw 8%, Fiorentina 2%51' · 2–0 · Genoa 90%, draw 8%, Fiorentina 2%53' · 2–0 · Genoa 90%, draw 8%, Fiorentina 2%54' · 2–0 · Genoa 91%, draw 8%, Fiorentina 2%56' · 2–0 · Genoa 91%, draw 7%, Fiorentina 2%57' · 2–0 · Genoa 92%, draw 7%, Fiorentina 2%58' · 2–0 · Genoa 92%, draw 7%, Fiorentina 1%59' · 2–0 · Genoa 92%, draw 6%, Fiorentina 1%60' · 2–0 · Genoa 93%, draw 6%, Fiorentina 1%61' · 2–0 · Genoa 93%, draw 6%, Fiorentina 1%62' · 2–0 · Genoa 93%, draw 6%, Fiorentina 1%63' · 2–0 · Genoa 93%, draw 6%, Fiorentina 1%64' · 2–0 · Genoa 94%, draw 5%, Fiorentina 1%65' · 2–0 · Genoa 94%, draw 5%, Fiorentina 1%66' · 2–0 · Genoa 94%, draw 5%, Fiorentina 1%67' · 2–0 · Genoa 94%, draw 5%, Fiorentina 1%68' · 2–0 · Genoa 95%, draw 5%, Fiorentina 1%69' · 2–0 · Genoa 95%, draw 4%, Fiorentina 1%70' · 2–0 · Genoa 95%, draw 4%, Fiorentina 1%71' · 2–0 · Genoa 96%, draw 4%, Fiorentina 1%72' · 2–0 · Genoa 96%, draw 4%, Fiorentina 0%74' · 2–1 · Genoa 75%, draw 21%, Fiorentina 4%75' · 2–1 · Genoa 75%, draw 21%, Fiorentina 4%76' · 2–1 · Genoa 76%, draw 20%, Fiorentina 4%77' · 2–1 · Genoa 77%, draw 20%, Fiorentina 3%78' · 2–1 · Genoa 78%, draw 19%, Fiorentina 3%79' · 2–1 · Genoa 79%, draw 18%, Fiorentina 3%80' · 2–1 · Genoa 80%, draw 18%, Fiorentina 3%81' · 2–1 · Genoa 80%, draw 17%, Fiorentina 2%82' · 2–1 · Genoa 81%, draw 17%, Fiorentina 2%83' · 2–1 · Genoa 82%, draw 16%, Fiorentina 2%84' · 2–1 · Genoa 83%, draw 15%, Fiorentina 2%85' · 2–1 · Genoa 84%, draw 14%, Fiorentina 1%86' · 2–1 · Genoa 85%, draw 13%, Fiorentina 1%88' · 2–1 · Genoa 88%, draw 12%, Fiorentina 1%89' · 2–1 · Genoa 89%, draw 11%, Fiorentina 1%90' · 2–1 · Genoa 90%, draw 9%, Fiorentina 1%90+1' · 2–1 · Genoa 91%, draw 8%, Fiorentina 0%90+2' · 2–1 · Genoa 93%, draw 7%, Fiorentina 0%90+3' · 2–1 · Genoa 94%, draw 5%, Fiorentina 0%90+4' · 2–1 · Genoa 96%, draw 4%, Fiorentina 0%90+5' · 2–1 · Genoa 97%, draw 2%, Fiorentina 0%90+6' · 2–1 · Genoa 99%, draw 1%, Fiorentina 0%90+7' · 2–1 · Genoa 100%, draw 0%, Fiorentina 0%

Last reading, 90+7': 100% · 0% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Fiorentina 51% to win: Genoa won.

  1. 7'Genoa:Milutin Osmajić 2008 +80 assist Mikael Ellertsson 2107 +48
  2. 15'Fiorentina:Luca Ranieri 2144 −9*
  3. 15'Genoa:Junior Messias 1852 +55* assist Milutin Osmajić 2008 +80
  4. 21'Fiorentina:Christ Inao Oulaï 2128 −8*
  5. 45'Fiorentina:Viery 1872 −8* for Luca Ranieri 2144 −9*
  6. 45'Fiorentina:Alieu Njie 1779 −8* for Christ Inao Oulaï 2128 −8*
  7. 57'Genoa:Samuel Wiafe 1525 +18* for Stephan El Shaarawy 1948 +9*
  8. 57'Genoa:Vítor Manuel Carvalho Oliveira 2024 +1* for Junior Messias 1852 +55*
  9. 60'Fiorentina:Viery 1872 −8*
  10. 65'Fiorentina:Mateo Pellegrino 2037 −8* for Beto 2207 −16*
  11. 66'Genoa:Alessandro Marcandalli 2051 −2* for Sebastian Otoa 1828 +22*
  12. 73'Fiorentina:Johan Vásquez 2127 +7* (own goal)
  13. 74'Genoa:Hamed Junior Traorè 1997 +19*
  14. 80'Fiorentina:Domilson Dodo 2113 −8* for Álex Jiménez 2299 −26*
  15. 81'Genoa:David Puczka 1313 +2* for Kingsley Ehizibue 2053 +8*
  16. 81'Fiorentina:Pedro Goncalves 2324 −11* for Wilfried Gnonto 2166 −12*
  17. 82'Genoa:Stefano Sabelli 1909 −10* for Mikael Ellertsson 2107 +48
  18. 84'Genoa:Johan Vásquez 2127 +7*
  19. 85'Genoa:Samuel Wiafe 1525 +18*
  20. 90+1'Genoa:Vítor Manuel Carvalho Oliveira 2024 +1*
  21. 90+5'Genoa:Stefano Sabelli 1909 −10*

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

3-4-2-1Formations4-3-3
GDavid de Gea2093−11*
DÁlex Jiménez2299−26*
DR. Drăgușin2229−12
DL. Ranieri2144−9*
DValde2082−8*
MC. Ndour2144−10*
MC. Inao Oulaï2128−8*
MN. Fagioli2193−8
FFranco Mastantuono2202−17*
FBeto2207−16*
FW. Gnonto2166−12*
CP. Vanoli2128−9*
Before kick-off: 22% · 27% · 51%(Genoa · draw · Fiorentina)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 2–1 had 6%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Genoa €6.3M, Fiorentina €18.3M.
  • Genoa were without 2 expected starters: D. Sow (2041) and L. Colombo (2042).
  • Fiorentina were without 1 expected starter: A. Atta (2088).

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Genoa

19th in Serie A · 1 pts from 5

  • 20 SepLParma 1999
  • 15 SepWSudtirol 1841
  • 12 SepDFrosinone 2046
  • 4 SepLComo 2050
  • 30 AugLLazio 2077

Fiorentina

17th in Serie A · 4 pts from 5

  • 20 SepDNapoli 2102
  • 15 SepWPisa 2119
  • 11 SepWVenezia 2082
  • 5 SepLTorino 2046
  • 29 AugLFrosinone 2131

Season outlook

From the Serie A simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Genoa1 /538.80%0%28%16th
Fiorentina4 /550.90%2%1%9th
Genoa
Fiorentina

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Serie A

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

L. Østigård
L. Østigård

Genoa · +2.2 (Good) · Elo 2070

C. Ndour
C. Ndour

Fiorentina · +1.8 (Good) · Elo 2154

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Daniele De Rossi

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Paolo Vanoli

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Genoa: direct (how Daniele De Rossi plays) · Fiorentina: balanced profile (how Paolo Vanoli plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.