Serie A · Regular Season - 11
Genoa vs AC Milan
Sun 8 Nov 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa
Genoa host AC Milan on Sun 8 Nov 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Genoa 20%, draw 25%, AC Milan 55%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Genoa €6.8M, AC Milan €23.9M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Serie A matchday 11: 254 points.
- Serie A: M. Maignan is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2480).
- Style contrast in dribbling (Serie A): Genoa rank #19 of 20, AC Milan #1.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Genoa goals first.
- 1–112%
- 1–210%
- 0–210%
- 0–110%
- 0–07%
- 1–36%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 0.9 pts
voetbalpoules.nl0–1expected 4.2 pts
Team Elo: Genoa 2000 · AC Milan 2254
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Genoa · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 2112
AC Milan · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2347
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Genoa
17th in Serie A · 4 pts from 7
- 17 OctLAS Roma Serie A1934
- 10 OctWFiorentina Serie A1992
- 20 SepLParma Serie A1999
- 15 SepWSudtirol Italy Coppa Italia1841
- 12 SepDFrosinone Serie A2046
AC Milan
4th in Serie A · 15 pts from 7
- 22 OctLBournemouth UEFA Europa League2255
- 18 OctWAtalanta Serie A2271
- 15 OctWRed Bull Salzburg UEFA Europa League2173
- 11 OctDSassuolo Serie A2301
- 20 SepWLecce Serie A2243
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 4 /7 | 39.2 | 0% | 0% | 27% | 15th |
| AC Milan | 15 /7 | 68.8 | 4% | 54% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Genoa: direct (how D. De Rossi plays) · AC Milan: dribble-heavy · possession-based (how Ruben Amorim plays)