J1 League · Regular Season - 15
Gamba Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 07:00 UTC · Panasonic Stadium Suita, Suita
Gamba Osaka host Fagiano Okayama on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Gamba Osaka 40%, draw 29%, Fagiano Okayama 31%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Gamba Osaka €622K, Fagiano Okayama €466K.
- Home advantage makes Gamba Osaka the favourite here: it adds 5 points to their win chance.
- All 11 of Gamba Osaka's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Gamba Osaka goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 0–08%
- 1–27%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Gamba Osaka 1644 · Fagiano Okayama 1653
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Gamba Osaka · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1712
Fagiano Okayama · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1690
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Gamba Osaka
18th in J1 League · 12 pts from 14
- 8 NovLCerezo Osaka J1 League1628
- 4 NovDPohang Steelers AFC Champions League1551
- 1 NovDMachida Zelvia J1 League1675
- 28 OctDBuriram United AFC Champions League1652
- 24 OctDKyoto Sanga J1 League1653
Fagiano Okayama
10th in J1 League · 17 pts from 14
- 7 NovDYokohama F. Marinos J1 League1633
- 31 OctLFC Tokyo J1 League1679
- 25 OctLKawasaki Frontale J1 League1665
- 21 OctWMito Hollyhock J1 League1675
- 18 OctLVissel Kobe J1 League1691
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gamba Osaka | 12 /14 | 41.5 | 0% | 0% | 19% | 15th |
| Fagiano Okayama | 17 /14 | 45.9 | 0% | 0% | 6% | 12th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Gamba Osaka: balanced profile (how Tomokazu Myojin plays) · Fagiano Okayama: direct (how Takashi Kiyama plays)