J1 League · Regular Season - 14
Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka
Sun 8 Nov 2026 · 06:00 UTC · Panasonic Stadium Suita, Suita
Gamba Osaka host Cerezo Osaka on Sun 8 Nov 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Gamba Osaka 40%, draw 29%, Cerezo Osaka 31%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Gamba Osaka €535K, Cerezo Osaka €648K.
- Home advantage makes Gamba Osaka the favourite here: it adds 5 points to their win chance.
- All 11 of Gamba Osaka's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
- All 11 of Cerezo Osaka's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Gamba Osaka goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Gamba Osaka 1686 · Cerezo Osaka 1692
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Gamba Osaka · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1760
Cerezo Osaka · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 1734
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Gamba Osaka
15th in J1 League · 10 pts from 11
- 21 OctWAvispa Fukuoka J1 League1682
- 17 OctDShimizu S-pulse J1 League1685
- 13 OctWNewcastle Jets AFC Champions League1645
- 9 OctLKashima J1 League1685
- 20 SepLVissel Kobe J1 League1675
Cerezo Osaka
13th in J1 League · 13 pts from 11
- 21 OctDNagoya Grampus J1 League1663
- 17 OctLKawasaki Frontale J1 League1701
- 10 OctDYokohama F. Marinos J1 League1742
- 19 SepDV-varen Nagasaki J1 League1725
- 12 SepLSanfrecce Hiroshima J1 League1773
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gamba Osaka | 10 /11 | 45.4 | 0% | <1% | 7% | 14th |
| Cerezo Osaka | 13 /11 | 47.7 | 0% | 1% | 4% | 13th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Gamba Osaka: balanced profile (how Tomokazu Myojin plays) · Cerezo Osaka: possession-based (how Pablo Machín plays)