UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 2
Galatasaray 1–4 Barcelona
Tue 13 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Rams Park, Istanbul
GalatasarayTeam 2205
BarcelonaTeam 2713Match story
Galatasaray · draw · BarcelonaBefore kick-off: 13% · 17% · 70%
Last reading, 90+4': 0% · 0% · 100%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- Aleksey Batrakov 28'
- João Cancelo 43'
- Fermín López 50'
- Anthony Gordon 53'
- Karim Adeyemi 65'
We gave Barcelona 70% to win: they did.
- Aleksey Batrakov 1885 0 assist Rafael Leão 2309 −1028'
Galatasaray:Aleksey Batrakov 1885 0 assist Rafael Leão 2309 −10 - 43'João Cancelo 2495 +31 assist Daniel Olmo Carvajal 2732 +12
Barcelona:João Cancelo 2495 +31 assist Daniel Olmo Carvajal 2732 +12 - 50'Fermín López 2680 +21 assist Lamine Yamal 2837 +14
Barcelona:Fermín López 2680 +21 assist Lamine Yamal 2837 +14 - 53'Anthony Gordon 2517 +22 assist Lamine Yamal 2837 +14
Barcelona:Anthony Gordon 2517 +22 assist Lamine Yamal 2837 +14 - Lesley Ugochukwu 2029 −8* for Mario Lemina 2156 −658'
Galatasaray:Lesley Ugochukwu 2029 −8* for Mario Lemina 2156 −6 - Gabriel 2269 −3 for Aleksey Batrakov 1885 058'
Galatasaray:Gabriel 2269 −3 for Aleksey Batrakov 1885 0 - Leroy Sané 2167 −4 for Yunus Akgün 2249 −558'
Galatasaray:Leroy Sané 2167 −4 for Yunus Akgün 2249 −5 - 58'Gabriel Jesus 2441 +12 for Daniel Olmo Carvajal 2732 +12
Barcelona:Gabriel Jesus 2441 +12 for Daniel Olmo Carvajal 2732 +12 - 59'Karim Adeyemi 2435 +13 for Anthony Gordon 2517 +22
Barcelona:Karim Adeyemi 2435 +13 for Anthony Gordon 2517 +22 - Rafael Leão 2309 −1064'
Galatasaray:Rafael Leão 2309 −10 - 65'Karim Adeyemi 2435 +13
Barcelona:Karim Adeyemi 2435 +13 - Roland Sallai 2246 −11* for Baris Alper Yilmaz 2268 −667'
Galatasaray:Roland Sallai 2246 −11* for Baris Alper Yilmaz 2268 −6 - 73'Jules Koundé 2672 +1 for Eric García 2696 +17
Barcelona:Jules Koundé 2672 +1 for Eric García 2696 +17 - 73'Marc Bernal 2296 +3 for Pedri 2838 +11
Barcelona:Marc Bernal 2296 +3 for Pedri 2838 +11 - Renato Nhaga 1555 0 for Lucas Torreira 2273 −1081'
Galatasaray:Renato Nhaga 1555 0 for Lucas Torreira 2273 −10 - 82'Pablo Martín Páez Gavira 2519 +1 for Fermín López 2680 +21
Barcelona:Pablo Martín Páez Gavira 2519 +1 for Fermín López 2680 +21 - Roland Sallai 2246 −11*86'
Galatasaray:Roland Sallai 2246 −11*
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 13% · 17% · 70%(Galatasaray · draw · Barcelona)
Our most likely score was 1–2 (9%); the result 1–4 had 6%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Galatasaray €12.7M, Barcelona €60.9M.
- Barcelona were without 2 expected starters: A. Christensen (2337) and Raphinha (2733).
- La Liga: Joan García was the highest-rated goalkeeper (2672).
- Barcelona's expected eleven was in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.3 over 180 days.
- Barcelona had won their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Galatasaray
1st in Süper Lig · 16 pts from 7
- 9 OctWKasımpaşa Turkey Super Lig2201
- 19 SepLTrabzonspor Turkey Super Lig2250
- 13 SepWKocaelispor Turkey Super Lig2250
- 9 SepLSporting CP UEFA Champions League2251
- 4 SepWBaşakşehir Turkey Super Lig2240
Barcelona
1st in La Liga · 24 pts from 8
- 10 OctWGetafe La Liga2598
- 19 SepWSevilla La Liga2614
- 16 SepWRacing Santander La Liga2611
- 13 SepWLevante La Liga2628
- 9 SepWFeyenoord UEFA Champions League2619
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 1 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | 0 /1 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 51.1 | 45.2 |
| Barcelona | 3 /1 | 17.7 | 82.2 | 17.6 | 0.2 |
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Galatasaray · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 1885

Barcelona · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +9.0 (Elite) · Elo 2756
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: possession-based · shot-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Galatasaray: creative · shot-heavy (how Okan Buruk plays) · Barcelona: possession-based · shot-heavy (how Hansi Flick plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.