UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 5
Galatasaray vs Aston Villa
Tue 24 Nov 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Rams Park, Istanbul
Galatasaray host Aston Villa on Tue 24 Nov 2026 (UEFA Champions League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Galatasaray 39%, draw 29%, Aston Villa 33%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Galatasaray €13.0M, Aston Villa €29.7M.
- Home advantage makes Galatasaray the favourite here: it adds 9 points to their win chance.
- Draw chance 29%, above the UEFA Champions League average of 22% this round.
- Galatasaray have won their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Galatasaray goals first.
- 1–113%
- 2–18%
- 2–28%
- 1–27%
- 1–06%
- 0–15%
- Other scores53%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.7 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–1expected 3.2 pts
Team Elo: Galatasaray 2264 · Aston Villa 2336
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Galatasaray · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.4 (Elite) · Elo 2096
Aston Villa · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Good) · Elo 2448
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Galatasaray
1st in Süper Lig · 28 pts from 11
- 7 NovWAmed Turkey Super Lig2276
- 3 NovWVfB Stuttgart UEFA Champions League2271
- 30 OctWKonyaspor Turkey Super Lig2261
- 26 OctWFenerbahçe Turkey Super Lig2242
- 21 OctWLille UEFA Champions League2229
Aston Villa
10th in Premier League · 13 pts from 10
- 8 NovDManchester United Premier League2365
- 3 NovLBarcelona UEFA Champions League2439
- 31 OctDFulham Premier League2400
- 28 OctLBournemouth England League Cup2155
- 24 OctWManchester City Premier League2364
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 4 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | 6 /4 | 11.7 | 4.5 | 83.0 | 12.4 |
| Aston Villa | 9 /4 | 15.1 | 46.1 | 53.8 | 0.1 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Galatasaray: creative · shot-heavy (how Okan Buruk plays) · Aston Villa: low-block (how Unai Emery plays)