UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 4
FK Jablonec vs FC Lugano
Thu 26 Nov 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Stadion Strelnice, Jablonec nad Nisou
FK Jablonec host FC Lugano on Thu 26 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa Conference League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FK Jablonec 21%, draw 26%, FC Lugano 53%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FK Jablonec €648K, FC Lugano €3.1M.
- Super League: D. von Ballmoos is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2124).
- FC Lugano's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FK Jablonec goals first.
- 1–112%
- 1–210%
- 0–19%
- 0–29%
- 0–06%
- 2–26%
- Other scores48%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl1–2expected 4.0 pts
Team Elo: FK Jablonec 1667 · FC Lugano 1996
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FK Jablonec · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1774
FC Lugano · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +8.4 (Elite) · Elo 2149
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FK Jablonec
7th in Czech Liga · 21 pts from 14
- 8 NovDMlada Boleslav Czech Liga1659
- 5 NovDRiga UEFA Conference League1712
- 31 OctLSlavia Praha Czech Liga1685
- 25 OctWHradec Králové Czech Liga1680
- 22 OctDBrighton UEFA Conference League1686
FC Lugano
1st in Super League · 34 pts from 13
- 8 NovLFC ST. Gallen Swiss Super League2066
- 5 NovWKauno Žalgiris UEFA Conference League1973
- 1 NovWFC Basel 1893 Swiss Super League2072
- 25 OctWFC Thun Swiss Super League1939
- 22 OctWGetafe UEFA Conference League2043
League phase outlook
From the Conference League simulation, after 3 of 6 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Jablonec | 2 /3 | 5.1 | 0.1 | 30.2 | 69.7 |
| FC Lugano | 9 /3 | 14.0 | 82.8 | 17.2 | 0.0 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FK Jablonec: balanced profile (how Luboš Kozel plays) · FC Lugano: possession-based (how Mattia Croci-Torti plays)