Serie A · Regular Season - 9
Fiorentina vs Atalanta
Thu 29 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence
Fiorentina host Atalanta on Thu 29 Oct 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Fiorentina 32%, draw 29%, Atalanta 39%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Fiorentina €15.8M, Atalanta €17.4M.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Fiorentina goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–19%
- 0–09%
- 1–29%
- 1–08%
- 2–18%
- Other scores43%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 0.7 pts
voetbalpoules.nl0–1expected 3.3 pts
Team Elo: Fiorentina 2129 · Atalanta 2187
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Fiorentina · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Average) · Elo 1872
Atalanta · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2325
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Fiorentina
19th in Serie A · 4 pts from 7
- 18 OctLComo Serie A2121
- 10 OctLGenoa Serie A2184
- 20 SepDNapoli Serie A2102
- 15 SepWPisa Italy Coppa Italia2119
- 11 SepWVenezia Serie A2082
Atalanta
10th in Serie A · 9 pts from 7
- 18 OctLAC Milan Serie A2175
- 15 OctWPafos UEFA Conference League2168
- 12 OctWVenezia Serie A2195
- 20 SepLJuventus Serie A2179
- 12 SepLCagliari Serie A2221
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | 4 /7 | 48.3 | 0% | <1% | 3% | 11th |
| Atalanta | 9 /7 | 57.8 | <1% | 7% | 0% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Fiorentina: balanced profile (how Paolo Vanoli plays) · Atalanta: creative (how Maurizio Sarri plays)