UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 4
Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool
Wed 4 Nov 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Istanbul
Fenerbahçe host Liverpool on Wed 4 Nov 2026 (UEFA Champions League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Fenerbahçe 37%, draw 29%, Liverpool 34%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Fenerbahçe €9.5M, Liverpool €43.5M.
- Home advantage makes Fenerbahçe the favourite here: it adds 9 points to their win chance.
- Süper Lig: Ederson is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2421).
- Fenerbahçe's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Fenerbahçe goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 1–09%
- 2–18%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.7 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–1expected 3.3 pts
Team Elo: Fenerbahçe 2263 · Liverpool 2355
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Fenerbahçe · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.7 (Elite) · Elo 2335
Liverpool · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Good) · Elo 2438
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Fenerbahçe
3rd in Süper Lig · 16 pts from 8
- 17 OctWAlanyaspor Turkey Super Lig2236
- 14 OctLAston Villa UEFA Champions League2267
- 10 OctWRizespor Turkey Super Lig2289
- 20 SepWEyüpspor Turkey Super Lig2257
- 14 SepDGaziantep FK Turkey Super Lig2301
Liverpool
5th in Premier League · 12 pts from 7
- 17 OctWBrentford Premier League2454
- 14 OctWLask Linz UEFA Champions League2239
- 11 OctLManchester City Premier League2397
- 20 SepWBournemouth Premier League2463
- 15 SepWTottenham England League Cup2133
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe | 1 /2 | 11.1 | 7.0 | 66.5 | 26.6 |
| Liverpool | 6 /2 | 15.8 | 58.6 | 40.3 | 1.1 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Fenerbahçe: shot-heavy · creative (how İsmail Kartal plays) · Liverpool: creative · possession-based (how Andoni Iraola plays)