J1 League · Regular Season - 16
FC Tokyo vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Wed 25 Nov 2026 · 10:00 UTC · Ajinomoto Stadium, Tokyo
FC Tokyo host Sanfrecce Hiroshima on Wed 25 Nov 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FC Tokyo 42%, draw 29%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 29%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC Tokyo €904K, Sanfrecce Hiroshima €1.2M.
- J1 League: M. Nagakura is the highest-rated forward (1988).
- Style contrast in dribbling (J1 League): FC Tokyo rank #4 of 22, Sanfrecce Hiroshima #20.
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.6 over 180 days.
- FC Tokyo are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FC Tokyo goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–011%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–19%
- 2–08%
- Other scores40%
Team Elo: FC Tokyo 1878 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1858
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Tokyo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.4 (Good) · Elo 1940
Sanfrecce Hiroshima · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Elite) · Elo 1892
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Tokyo
1st in J1 League · 33 pts from 14
- 7 NovWKashima J1 League1833
- 31 OctWFagiano Okayama J1 League1842
- 25 OctWMito Hollyhock J1 League1851
- 21 OctDKashiwa Reysol J1 League1891
- 17 OctWTokyo Verdy J1 League1833
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3rd in J1 League · 30 pts from 14
- 8 NovDMachida Zelvia J1 League1868
- 31 OctWMito Hollyhock J1 League1829
- 24 OctWShimizu S-pulse J1 League1825
- 21 OctLV-varen Nagasaki J1 League1878
- 17 OctWKyoto Sanga J1 League1839
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tokyo | 33 /14 | 74.6 | 36% | 89% | 0% | 1st |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 30 /14 | 70.2 | 13% | 68% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC Tokyo: balanced profile (how Rikizo Matsuhashi plays) · Sanfrecce Hiroshima: creative · shot-heavy (how Bartosch Gaul plays)