J1 League · Regular Season - 12
FC Tokyo vs Mito Hollyhock
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 07:00 UTC · Ajinomoto Stadium, Tokyo
FC Tokyo host Mito Hollyhock on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FC Tokyo 66%, draw 21%, Mito Hollyhock 13%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC Tokyo €1.0M, Mito Hollyhock €378K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of J1 League matchday 12: 304 points.
- Draw chance 21%, below the J1 League average of 27% this round.
- Mito Hollyhock's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.4 over 180 days.
- FC Tokyo have won their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FC Tokyo goals first.
- 2–011%
- 2–110%
- 1–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–08%
- 3–17%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: FC Tokyo 1855 · Mito Hollyhock 1551
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Tokyo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 1925
Mito Hollyhock · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1657
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Tokyo
3rd in J1 League · 23 pts from 10
- 17 OctWTokyo Verdy J1 League1844
- 10 OctWUrawa J1 League1817
- 19 SepWNagoya Grampus J1 League1837
- 12 SepWGamba Osaka J1 League1797
- 6 SepWKyoto Sanga J1 League1806
Mito Hollyhock
14th in J1 League · 9 pts from 10
- 17 OctLUrawa J1 League1541
- 11 OctLShimizu S-pulse J1 League1536
- 19 SepLYokohama F. Marinos J1 League1617
- 12 SepLKawasaki Frontale J1 League1595
- 5 SepDAvispa Fukuoka J1 League1622
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tokyo | 23 /10 | 69.8 | 17% | 71% | 0% | 2nd |
| Mito Hollyhock | 9 /10 | 37.0 | 0% | 0% | 47% | 18th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC Tokyo: balanced profile (how Rikizo Matsuhashi plays) · Mito Hollyhock: balanced profile (how Daisuke Kimori plays)