J1 League · Regular Season - 11
FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol
Wed 21 Oct 2026 · 10:00 UTC · Ajinomoto Stadium, Chofu
FC Tokyo host Kashiwa Reysol on Wed 21 Oct 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FC Tokyo 46%, draw 28%, Kashiwa Reysol 26%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC Tokyo €1.0M, Kashiwa Reysol €869K.
- FC Tokyo have won their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FC Tokyo goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 2–08%
- 0–08%
- 1–27%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: FC Tokyo 1855 · Kashiwa Reysol 1786
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Tokyo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 1925
Kashiwa Reysol · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.8 (Good) · Elo 1844
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Tokyo
3rd in J1 League · 23 pts from 10
- 17 OctWTokyo Verdy J1 League1844
- 10 OctWUrawa J1 League1817
- 19 SepWNagoya Grampus J1 League1837
- 12 SepWGamba Osaka J1 League1797
- 6 SepWKyoto Sanga J1 League1806
Kashiwa Reysol
5th in J1 League · 21 pts from 10
- 17 OctLNagoya Grampus J1 League1795
- 14 OctWPort FC AFC Champions League1701
- 9 OctWVissel Kobe J1 League1775
- 20 SepWMachida Zelvia J1 League1761
- 16 SepLJeonbuk Motors AFC Champions League1698
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tokyo | 23 /10 | 69.8 | 17% | 71% | 0% | 2nd |
| Kashiwa Reysol | 21 /10 | 63.4 | 4% | 32% | 0% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC Tokyo: balanced profile (how Rikizo Matsuhashi plays) · Kashiwa Reysol: possession-based (how Ricardo Rodríguez Suárez plays)