J1 League · Regular Season - 14
FC Tokyo vs Kashima
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 06:00 UTC · Ajinomoto Stadium, Tokyo
FC Tokyo host Kashima on Sat 7 Nov 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FC Tokyo 40%, draw 29%, Kashima 31%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC Tokyo €964K, Kashima €1.6M.
- Home advantage makes FC Tokyo the favourite here: it adds 5 points to their win chance.
- FC Tokyo are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
- Kashima are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FC Tokyo goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: FC Tokyo 1859 · Kashima 1865
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Tokyo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 1918
Kashima · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 1950
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Tokyo
2nd in J1 League · 24 pts from 11
- 21 OctDKashiwa Reysol J1 League1897
- 17 OctWTokyo Verdy J1 League1844
- 10 OctWUrawa J1 League1817
- 19 SepWNagoya Grampus J1 League1837
- 12 SepWGamba Osaka J1 League1797
Kashima
6th in J1 League · 20 pts from 11
- 21 OctDKyoto Sanga J1 League1894
- 17 OctWV-varen Nagasaki J1 League1804
- 13 OctWCông An Nhân Dân AFC Champions League1883
- 9 OctWGamba Osaka J1 League1869
- 19 SepDKawasaki Frontale J1 League1863
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tokyo | 24 /11 | 69.6 | 16% | 74% | 0% | 2nd |
| Kashima | 20 /11 | 65.8 | 7% | 51% | 0% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: possession-based · shot-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC Tokyo: balanced profile (how Rikizo Matsuhashi plays) · Kashima: balanced profile (how Toru Oniki plays)