UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2
FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split
Thu 22 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Stockhorn Arena, Thun
FC Thun host HNK Hajduk Split on Thu 22 Oct 2026 (UEFA Europa Conference League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FC Thun 34%, draw 29%, HNK Hajduk Split 37%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC Thun €861K, HNK Hajduk Split €1.1M.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FC Thun goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 0–19%
- 1–28%
- 1–08%
- 2–18%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl1–1expected 3.3 pts
Team Elo: FC Thun 1666 · HNK Hajduk Split 1801
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Thun · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1794
HNK Hajduk Split · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 1906
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Thun
9th in Super League · 10 pts from 10
- 15 OctLTwente UEFA Conference League1725
- 10 OctLFC Zurich Swiss Super League1638
- 20 SepWFC Vaduz Swiss Super League1664
- 16 SepLServette FC Swiss Super League1664
- 12 SepLGrasshoppers Swiss Super League1679
HNK Hajduk Split
1st in HNL · 22 pts from 10
- 18 OctWNK Varazdin HNL1779
- 15 OctWAjax UEFA Conference League1810
- 10 OctWDinamo Zagreb HNL1778
- 20 SepLHNK Rijeka HNL1786
- 13 SepWNK Slaven Belupo HNL1799
League phase outlook
From the Conference League simulation, after 1 of 6 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Thun | 0 /1 | 4.7 | 0.5 | 25.6 | 74.0 |
| HNK Hajduk Split | 3 /1 | 10.3 | 27.8 | 63.8 | 8.5 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC Thun: direct (how Luca Privitelli Gian plays) · HNK Hajduk Split: balanced profile (how Gonzalo Manuel García García plays)