UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 3
FC Thun vs Heart Of Midlothian
Thu 5 Nov 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Stockhorn Arena, Thun
FC Thun host Heart Of Midlothian on Thu 5 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa Conference League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FC Thun 34%, draw 29%, Heart Of Midlothian 37%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC Thun €890K, Heart Of Midlothian €932K.
- Draw chance 29%, above the UEFA Europa Conference League average of 23% this round.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FC Thun goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 0–19%
- 1–08%
- 1–28%
- 2–18%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl1–1expected 3.3 pts
Team Elo: FC Thun 1641 · Heart Of Midlothian 1771
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Thun · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1782
Heart Of Midlothian · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Elite) · Elo 1873
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Thun
9th in Super League · 10 pts from 10
- 22 OctLHNK Hajduk Split UEFA Conference League1741
- 15 OctLTwente UEFA Conference League1725
- 10 OctLFC Zurich Swiss Super League1638
- 20 SepWFC Vaduz Swiss Super League1664
- 16 SepLServette FC Swiss Super League1664
Heart Of Midlothian
3rd in Premiership · 16 pts from 9
- 22 OctLTrabzonspor UEFA Conference League1726
- 18 OctLCeltic Scotland Premiership1798
- 15 OctDFC Nordsjaelland UEFA Conference League1771
- 10 OctWST Mirren Scotland Premiership1736
- 19 SepDKilmarnock Scotland Premiership1788
League phase outlook
From the Conference League simulation, after 2 of 6 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Thun | 0 /2 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 11.1 | 88.9 |
| Heart Of Midlothian | 1 /2 | 6.2 | 0.9 | 47.3 | 51.8 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC Thun: direct (how Luca Privitelli Gian plays) · Heart Of Midlothian: balanced profile (how Wouter Vrancken plays)