UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3
FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven
Tue 20 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Estádio do Dragão, Porto
FC Porto host PSV Eindhoven on Tue 20 Oct 2026 (UEFA Champions League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FC Porto 55%, draw 25%, PSV Eindhoven 20%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC Porto €21.0M, PSV Eindhoven €8.7M.
- FC Porto are without 1 expected starter: William (2179).
- Primeira Liga: Diogo Costa is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2605).
- Eredivisie: S. Dest is the highest-rated defender (2365).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FC Porto goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–110%
- 2–010%
- 1–010%
- 0–07%
- 3–16%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.9 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 4.2 pts
Team Elo: FC Porto 2301 · PSV Eindhoven 2171
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches; in for ruled-out starters: Borja Sainz for William.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Porto · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 2526
PSV Eindhoven · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2174
Absences
FC Porto
Ruled out
- WilliamAnkle Injury2179
PSV Eindhoven
Ruled out
- J. SchoutenKnee Injury2290
- P. WannerFoot Injury2225
- K. SildilliaSurgery2170
- A. PléaSurgery1998
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Porto
1st in Primeira Liga · 24 pts from 8
- 14 OctLReal Betis UEFA Champions League2354
- 10 OctWMaritimo Primeira Liga2345
- 20 SepWBenfica Primeira Liga2331
- 12 SepWCasa Pia Primeira Liga2304
- 8 SepLManchester City UEFA Champions League2311
PSV Eindhoven
3rd in Eredivisie · 19 pts from 9
- 17 OctLADO Den Haag Eredivisie2156
- 13 OctLRB Leipzig UEFA Champions League2208
- 9 OctWHeerenveen Eredivisie2206
- 20 SepLTwente Eredivisie2259
- 13 SepWSparta Rotterdam Eredivisie2182
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 0 /2 | 10.6 | 6.5 | 67.0 | 26.5 |
| PSV Eindhoven | 1 /2 | 8.4 | 1.5 | 41.9 | 56.7 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC Porto: possession-based (how Francesco Farioli plays) · PSV Eindhoven: possession-based · creative (how Peter Bosz plays)