UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 4
FC Porto vs Napoli
Wed 4 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC
FC Porto host Napoli on Wed 4 Nov 2026 (UEFA Champions League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FC Porto 52%, draw 26%, Napoli 22%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC Porto €19.9M, Napoli €17.0M.
- Primeira Liga: Diogo Costa is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2605).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FC Porto goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–26%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.9 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 4.0 pts
Team Elo: FC Porto 2308 · Napoli 2218
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Porto · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.4 (Elite) · Elo 2473
Napoli · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 2250
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Porto
1st in Primeira Liga · 24 pts from 8
- 14 OctLReal Betis UEFA Champions League2354
- 10 OctWMaritimo Primeira Liga2345
- 20 SepWBenfica Primeira Liga2331
- 12 SepWCasa Pia Primeira Liga2304
- 8 SepLManchester City UEFA Champions League2311
Napoli
9th in Serie A · 10 pts from 7
- 17 OctLVenezia Serie A2210
- 13 OctLVillarreal UEFA Champions League2236
- 10 OctWFrosinone Serie A2274
- 20 SepDFiorentina Serie A2253
- 13 SepWBologna Serie A2188
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 0 /2 | 10.8 | 7.0 | 67.8 | 25.2 |
| Napoli | 0 /2 | 9.4 | 1.8 | 56.4 | 41.8 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC Porto: possession-based (how Francesco Farioli plays) · Napoli: possession-based (how Massimiliano Allegri plays)