UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2
FC Nordsjaelland vs CSKA Sofia
Thu 22 Oct 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Right to Dream Park, Farum
FC Nordsjaelland host CSKA Sofia on Thu 22 Oct 2026 (UEFA Europa Conference League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FC Nordsjaelland 51%, draw 26%, CSKA Sofia 22%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC Nordsjaelland €2.8M, CSKA Sofia €1.3M.
- First League: F. Lapoukhov is the highest-rated goalkeeper (1901).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FC Nordsjaelland goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–26%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 4.0 pts
Team Elo: FC Nordsjaelland 1868 · CSKA Sofia 1787
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Nordsjaelland · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.8 (Elite) · Elo 1903
CSKA Sofia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Below) · Elo 1901
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Nordsjaelland
4th in Superliga · 19 pts from 11
- 18 OctDLyngby Denmark Superliga1896
- 15 OctDHeart Of Midlothian UEFA Conference League1915
- 9 OctDOdense Denmark Superliga1830
- 20 SepLViborg Denmark Superliga1888
- 13 SepWAarhus Denmark Superliga1914
CSKA Sofia
2nd in First League · 27 pts from 11
- 15 OctLMonaco UEFA Conference League1837
- 11 OctWCSKA 1948 Bulgarian First League1820
- 20 SepDLokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgarian First League1782
- 16 SepWLokomotiv Sofia Bulgarian First League1776
- 12 SepWArda Kardzhali Bulgarian First League1716
League phase outlook
From the Conference League simulation, after 1 of 6 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Nordsjaelland | 1 /1 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 65.6 | 25.2 |
| CSKA Sofia | 0 /1 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 40.8 | 57.4 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC Nordsjaelland: possession-based (how Jens Fønsskov Olsen plays) · CSKA Sofia: creative · shot-heavy (how Markus Gisdol plays)