UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2
FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden
Thu 22 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · MCH Arena, Herning
FC Midtjylland host St. Truiden on Thu 22 Oct 2026 (UEFA Europa Conference League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FC Midtjylland 54%, draw 25%, St. Truiden 20%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC Midtjylland €5.1M, St. Truiden €2.0M.
- Superliga: E. Ólafsson is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2098).
- FC Midtjylland are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FC Midtjylland goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–110%
- 1–010%
- 2–010%
- 0–07%
- 3–16%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 4.1 pts
Team Elo: FC Midtjylland 1939 · St. Truiden 1819
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Midtjylland · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.7 (Elite) · Elo 2081
St. Truiden · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 1954
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Midtjylland
2nd in Superliga · 22 pts from 10
- 15 OctDEgnatia Rrogozhinë UEFA Conference League1981
- 11 OctWFC Copenhagen Denmark Superliga1938
- 19 SepDOdense Denmark Superliga1987
- 14 SepWBrondby Denmark Superliga1947
- 7 SepDFC Nordsjaelland Denmark Superliga1985
St. Truiden
12th in Pro League · 8 pts from 8
- 15 OctWFC Iberia 1999 UEFA Conference League1855
- 11 OctLKV Mechelen Belgium Pro League1888
- 20 SepLKVC Westerlo Belgium Pro League1898
- 12 SepLSK Beveren Belgium Pro League1878
- 5 SepWRAAL La Louvière Belgium Pro League1886
League phase outlook
From the Conference League simulation, after 1 of 6 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Midtjylland | 1 /1 | 9.6 | 23.2 | 65.6 | 11.2 |
| St. Truiden | 3 /1 | 8.5 | 11.6 | 66.5 | 21.9 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC Midtjylland: dribble-heavy · direct (how Mike Tullberg plays) · St. Truiden: possession-based (how Frédéric De Meyer plays)