UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 3
FC Midtjylland vs Ajax
Thu 5 Nov 2026 · 17:45 UTC · MCH Arena, Herning
FC Midtjylland host Ajax on Thu 5 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa Conference League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FC Midtjylland 30%, draw 29%, Ajax 42%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC Midtjylland €3.8M, Ajax €6.4M.
- Draw chance 29%, above the UEFA Europa Conference League average of 23% this round.
- Superliga: E. Ólafsson is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2098).
- Eredivisie: M. ter Stegen is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2308).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FC Midtjylland goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–19%
- 1–29%
- 0–09%
- 0–28%
- 1–07%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl0–1expected 3.5 pts
Team Elo: FC Midtjylland 1985 · Ajax 2177
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Midtjylland · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.7 (Elite) · Elo 2107
Ajax · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Elite) · Elo 2231
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Midtjylland
2nd in Superliga · 25 pts from 11
- 22 OctLSt. Truiden UEFA Conference League1943
- 19 OctWViborg Denmark Superliga1959
- 15 OctDEgnatia Rrogozhinë UEFA Conference League1981
- 11 OctWFC Copenhagen Denmark Superliga1938
- 19 SepDOdense Denmark Superliga1987
Ajax
4th in Eredivisie · 18 pts from 9
- 22 OctWAtalanta UEFA Conference League2191
- 18 OctWGroningen Eredivisie2137
- 15 OctLHNK Hajduk Split UEFA Conference League2076
- 10 OctDNEC Nijmegen Eredivisie2181
- 19 SepDExcelsior Eredivisie2179
League phase outlook
From the Conference League simulation, after 2 of 6 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Midtjylland | 1 /2 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 73.9 | 20.2 |
| Ajax | 3 /2 | 11.1 | 40.1 | 58.1 | 1.8 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy · possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC Midtjylland: dribble-heavy · direct (how Mike Tullberg plays) · Ajax: possession-based (how Michel plays)