UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 3
FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris
Thu 5 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · AIL Arena, Lugano
FC Lugano host Kauno Žalgiris on Thu 5 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa Conference League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FC Lugano 79%, draw 14%, Kauno Žalgiris 7%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC Lugano €3.0M, Kauno Žalgiris €293K.
- Draw chance 14%, below the UEFA Europa Conference League average of 23% this round.
- Super League: D. von Ballmoos is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2110).
- FC Lugano's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 over 180 days.
- FC Lugano have won their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FC Lugano goals first.
- 2–010%
- 3–010%
- 2–18%
- 3–18%
- 4–07%
- 1–06%
- Other scores51%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 5.4 pts
Team Elo: FC Lugano 1999 · Kauno Žalgiris 1541
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Lugano · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.5 (Elite) · Elo 2155
Kauno Žalgiris · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.0 (Average) · Elo 1538
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Lugano
1st in Super League · 28 pts from 10
- 22 OctWGetafe UEFA Conference League2049
- 15 OctWFK Crvena Zvezda UEFA Conference League2000
- 10 OctWFC Luzern Swiss Super League1988
- 20 SepWLausanne Swiss Super League1946
- 16 SepWFC ST. Gallen Swiss Super League1860
Kauno Žalgiris
1st in A Lyga · 54 pts from 29
- 22 OctLBrann UEFA Conference League1555
- 15 OctLBrighton UEFA Conference League1566
- 27 AugWBeşiktaş UEFA Europa League1519
- 20 AugLBeşiktaş UEFA Europa League1518
- 11 AugLDinamo Zagreb UEFA Champions League1515
League phase outlook
From the Conference League simulation, after 2 of 6 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lugano | 6 /2 | 13.5 | 74.5 | 25.4 | 0.1 |
| Kauno Žalgiris | 0 /2 | 3.4 | 0.0 | 8.4 | 91.5 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: –