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UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 1

FC Lugano 3–2 FK Crvena Zvezda

Thu 15 Oct 2026 · 16:45 UTC · AIL Arena, Lugano

FC Lugano crestFC LuganoTeam 2019
3–2
Full time
HT 1–1
FK Crvena Zvezda crestFK Crvena ZvezdaTeam 1942

Match story

FC Lugano · draw · FK Crvena Zvezda

Before kick-off: 51% · 27% · 23%

Live chances: FC Lugano 98%, draw 2%, FK Crvena Zvezda 0% at 90+5'1' · 0–0 · FC Lugano 51%, draw 27%, FK Crvena Zvezda 23%2' · 0–0 · FC Lugano 51%, draw 27%, FK Crvena Zvezda 23%4' · 0–0 · FC Lugano 50%, draw 27%, FK Crvena Zvezda 23%5' · 0–0 · FC Lugano 50%, draw 27%, FK Crvena Zvezda 23%6' · 0–0 · FC Lugano 50%, draw 27%, FK Crvena Zvezda 23%7' · 0–0 · FC Lugano 50%, draw 27%, FK Crvena Zvezda 23%8' · 0–0 · FC Lugano 50%, draw 28%, FK Crvena Zvezda 23%9' · 0–0 · FC Lugano 49%, draw 28%, FK Crvena Zvezda 23%10' · 0–0 · FC Lugano 49%, draw 28%, FK Crvena Zvezda 23%11' · 0–0 · FC Lugano 49%, draw 28%, FK Crvena Zvezda 23%12' · 0–0 · FC Lugano 49%, draw 28%, FK Crvena Zvezda 23%13' · 0–0 · FC Lugano 49%, draw 28%, FK Crvena Zvezda 23%14' · 0–0 · FC Lugano 49%, draw 29%, FK Crvena Zvezda 23%15' · 0–0 · FC Lugano 48%, draw 29%, FK Crvena Zvezda 23%16' · 0–0 · FC Lugano 48%, draw 29%, FK Crvena Zvezda 23%17' · 0–0 · FC Lugano 48%, draw 29%, FK Crvena Zvezda 23%18' · 0–0 · FC Lugano 48%, draw 29%, FK Crvena Zvezda 23%19' · 0–0 · FC Lugano 48%, draw 30%, FK Crvena Zvezda 23%20' · 0–0 · FC Lugano 47%, draw 30%, FK Crvena Zvezda 23%21' · 0–0 · FC Lugano 47%, draw 30%, FK Crvena Zvezda 23%22' · 0–0 · FC Lugano 47%, draw 30%, FK Crvena Zvezda 23%24' · 0–0 · FC Lugano 46%, draw 31%, FK Crvena Zvezda 23%25' · 0–0 · FC Lugano 46%, draw 31%, FK Crvena Zvezda 23%26' · 1–0 · FC Lugano 76%, draw 17%, FK Crvena Zvezda 7%27' · 1–0 · FC Lugano 76%, draw 17%, FK Crvena Zvezda 7%28' · 1–0 · FC Lugano 76%, draw 17%, FK Crvena Zvezda 7%29' · 1–0 · FC Lugano 76%, draw 17%, FK Crvena Zvezda 7%30' · 1–0 · FC Lugano 76%, draw 17%, FK Crvena Zvezda 7%31' · 1–0 · FC Lugano 76%, draw 17%, FK Crvena Zvezda 7%32' · 1–0 · FC Lugano 76%, draw 17%, FK Crvena Zvezda 6%34' · 1–1 · FC Lugano 44%, draw 33%, FK Crvena Zvezda 23%35' · 1–1 · FC Lugano 44%, draw 33%, FK Crvena Zvezda 23%36' · 1–1 · FC Lugano 44%, draw 34%, FK Crvena Zvezda 23%37' · 1–1 · FC Lugano 43%, draw 34%, FK Crvena Zvezda 23%39' · 1–1 · FC Lugano 43%, draw 35%, FK Crvena Zvezda 23%40' · 1–1 · FC Lugano 42%, draw 35%, FK Crvena Zvezda 22%41' · 1–1 · FC Lugano 42%, draw 35%, FK Crvena Zvezda 22%43' · 1–1 · FC Lugano 42%, draw 36%, FK Crvena Zvezda 22%44' · 1–1 · FC Lugano 41%, draw 36%, FK Crvena Zvezda 22%45' · 1–1 · FC Lugano 41%, draw 37%, FK Crvena Zvezda 22%45+1' · 1–1 · FC Lugano 41%, draw 37%, FK Crvena Zvezda 22%45+2' · 1–1 · FC Lugano 40%, draw 38%, FK Crvena Zvezda 22%HT · 1–1 · FC Lugano 40%, draw 38%, FK Crvena Zvezda 22%46' · 1–1 · FC Lugano 40%, draw 38%, FK Crvena Zvezda 22%47' · 1–1 · FC Lugano 39%, draw 39%, FK Crvena Zvezda 22%48' · 1–1 · FC Lugano 39%, draw 39%, FK Crvena Zvezda 22%49' · 1–1 · FC Lugano 39%, draw 40%, FK Crvena Zvezda 22%50' · 1–1 · FC Lugano 38%, draw 40%, FK Crvena Zvezda 22%51' · 1–1 · FC Lugano 38%, draw 41%, FK Crvena Zvezda 21%52' · 1–1 · FC Lugano 37%, draw 41%, FK Crvena Zvezda 21%53' · 1–1 · FC Lugano 37%, draw 42%, FK Crvena Zvezda 21%54' · 1–1 · FC Lugano 37%, draw 43%, FK Crvena Zvezda 21%55' · 1–1 · FC Lugano 36%, draw 43%, FK Crvena Zvezda 21%56' · 1–1 · FC Lugano 36%, draw 44%, FK Crvena Zvezda 21%57' · 1–1 · FC Lugano 35%, draw 45%, FK Crvena Zvezda 20%58' · 1–1 · FC Lugano 34%, draw 45%, FK Crvena Zvezda 20%59' · 1–1 · FC Lugano 34%, draw 46%, FK Crvena Zvezda 20%60' · 1–1 · FC Lugano 33%, draw 47%, FK Crvena Zvezda 20%61' · 1–1 · FC Lugano 33%, draw 47%, FK Crvena Zvezda 20%62' · 1–1 · FC Lugano 32%, draw 48%, FK Crvena Zvezda 19%63' · 1–1 · FC Lugano 32%, draw 49%, FK Crvena Zvezda 19%64' · 1–1 · FC Lugano 31%, draw 50%, FK Crvena Zvezda 19%65' · 1–1 · FC Lugano 31%, draw 50%, FK Crvena Zvezda 19%66' · 1–1 · FC Lugano 30%, draw 51%, FK Crvena Zvezda 18%67' · 1–1 · FC Lugano 30%, draw 52%, FK Crvena Zvezda 18%68' · 1–2 · FC Lugano 8%, draw 25%, FK Crvena Zvezda 67%69' · 1–2 · FC Lugano 7%, draw 25%, FK Crvena Zvezda 67%70' · 1–2 · FC Lugano 7%, draw 25%, FK Crvena Zvezda 68%72' · 1–2 · FC Lugano 6%, draw 24%, FK Crvena Zvezda 70%73' · 1–2 · FC Lugano 6%, draw 24%, FK Crvena Zvezda 70%74' · 1–2 · FC Lugano 6%, draw 23%, FK Crvena Zvezda 71%75' · 1–2 · FC Lugano 5%, draw 23%, FK Crvena Zvezda 72%76' · 1–2 · FC Lugano 5%, draw 22%, FK Crvena Zvezda 73%77' · 1–2 · FC Lugano 4%, draw 22%, FK Crvena Zvezda 74%78' · 1–2 · FC Lugano 4%, draw 21%, FK Crvena Zvezda 75%79' · 1–2 · FC Lugano 4%, draw 21%, FK Crvena Zvezda 76%80' · 1–2 · FC Lugano 3%, draw 20%, FK Crvena Zvezda 77%82' · 1–2 · FC Lugano 3%, draw 19%, FK Crvena Zvezda 79%83' · 1–2 · FC Lugano 2%, draw 18%, FK Crvena Zvezda 80%84' · 1–2 · FC Lugano 2%, draw 17%, FK Crvena Zvezda 81%85' · 2–2 · FC Lugano 16%, draw 74%, FK Crvena Zvezda 11%86' · 2–2 · FC Lugano 15%, draw 75%, FK Crvena Zvezda 10%87' · 2–2 · FC Lugano 14%, draw 77%, FK Crvena Zvezda 9%88' · 2–2 · FC Lugano 13%, draw 79%, FK Crvena Zvezda 9%89' · 2–2 · FC Lugano 11%, draw 81%, FK Crvena Zvezda 8%90' · 2–2 · FC Lugano 10%, draw 83%, FK Crvena Zvezda 7%90+1' · 3–2 · FC Lugano 94%, draw 6%, FK Crvena Zvezda 0%90+2' · 3–2 · FC Lugano 95%, draw 5%, FK Crvena Zvezda 0%90+3' · 3–2 · FC Lugano 96%, draw 4%, FK Crvena Zvezda 0%90+5' · 3–2 · FC Lugano 98%, draw 2%, FK Crvena Zvezda 0%

Last reading, 90+5': 98% · 2% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave FC Lugano 51% to win: they did.

  1. 25'FC Lugano:A. Ajeti 1847 +35 assist R. Steffen 1930 +22
  2. 32'FK Crvena Zvezda:T. Elsnik 2058 −19 assist M. Gashtarov 1760 0
  3. 33'FK Crvena Zvezda:V. Kostov 2051 −6
  4. 53'FC Lugano:R. Steffen 1930 +22
  5. 55'FC Lugano:L. Mai 2123 +8
  6. 63'FC Lugano:E. Pihlstrom 1632 +1* for R. Steffen 1930 +22
  7. 63'FC Lugano:K. Behrens 1786 +2* for A. Ajeti 1847 +35
  8. 64'FK Crvena Zvezda:M. Cham 1901 −1 for T. Handel 2018 −10
  9. 67'FK Crvena Zvezda:R. Krunic 1959 −12 assist M. Cham 1901 −1
  10. 73'FC Lugano:D. Moncada 1813 +10 for B. Karimov 1550 +27
  11. 75'FK Crvena Zvezda:M. Strika 1688 −8* for M. Ristic 1760 −3
  12. 75'FK Crvena Zvezda:K. Balov 1583 0 for V. Lucic 1913 −10*
  13. 79'FC Lugano:E. Alioski 1861 −1 for H. Delcroix 2101 +7
  14. 79'FC Lugano:B. D. Castro Espinosa 1784 +7 for D. Dos Santos 2021 +10
  15. 81'FK Crvena Zvezda:M. Arnautovic 1550 −10 for B. Dieng 1983 −3
  16. 81'FK Crvena Zvezda:M. Bajo 1758 −8* for R. Krunic 1959 −12
  17. 82'FK Crvena Zvezda:S. Gudelj 1787 0
  18. 84'FC Lugano:D. Moncada 1813 +10 assist Y. Cimignani 2101 +9
  19. 88'FK Crvena Zvezda:M. Bajo 1758 −8*
  20. 89'FC Lugano:A. Grgic 2117 +21 (pen.)
  21. 90+4'FK Crvena Zvezda:M. Gashtarov 1760 0

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

3-5-2Formations3-4-2-1
GMatheus2053−9
DStefan Gudelj17870
DMatej Gaštarov17600
DYuta Nakayama2019−16
MTomás Händel2018−10
MRade Krunić1959−12
MTimi Max Elšnik2058−19
MMihailo Ristić1760−3
FVasilije Kostov2051−6
FVladimir Lučić1913−10*
FAhmadou Bamba Dieng1983−3
CAlbert Riera Ortega1982
Before kick-off: 51% · 27% · 23%(FC Lugano · draw · FK Crvena Zvezda)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 3–2 had 3%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: FC Lugano €2.8M, FK Crvena Zvezda €3.4M.
  • Super League: D. von Ballmoos was the highest-rated goalkeeper (2060).
  • Super Liga: Matheus was the highest-rated goalkeeper (2062).
  • FC Lugano's expected eleven was in form: average +3.5 over 180 days.
  • FC Lugano were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

FC Lugano

1st in Super League · 28 pts from 10

  • 10 OctWFC Luzern 1988
  • 20 SepWLausanne 1946
  • 16 SepWFC ST. Gallen 1860
  • 12 SepDBSC Young Boys 1949
  • 6 SepWFC Basel 1893 1919

FK Crvena Zvezda

1st in Super Liga · 31 pts from 11

  • 10 OctWRadnicki 1923 1920
  • 20 SepWRadnicki NIS 1882
  • 17 SepWŽelezničar Pančevo 1902
  • 13 SepWIMT Novi Beograd 1905
  • 10 SepDRadnik Surdulica 1884

League phase outlook

From the Conference League simulation, after 0 of 6 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).

ClubPtsPred. ptsTop 8Play-offOut
FC Lugano0 /010.231.659.19.2
FK Crvena Zvezda0 /09.826.363.99.8

Full league phase and chances: Conference League

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

U. Bislimi
U. Bislimi

FC Lugano · +7.1 (Elite) · Elo 2109

S. Gudelj
S. Gudelj

FK Crvena Zvezda · +3.6 (Elite) · Elo 1787

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Mattia Croci-Torti

Coach DNA: possession-based

Albert Riera Ortega

Coach DNA: possession-based

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

FC Lugano: possession-based (how Mattia Croci-Torti plays) · FK Crvena Zvezda: shot-heavy · creative (how Albert Riera Ortega plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.