Primera División · Clausura - 14
FC Cajamarca vs UTC Cajamarca
Wed 28 Oct 2026 · 21:00 UTC · Estadio Heroes de San Ramon, Cajamarca
FC Cajamarca host UTC Cajamarca on Wed 28 Oct 2026 (Primera División); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FC Cajamarca 44%, draw 28%, UTC Cajamarca 28%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FC Cajamarca €256K, UTC Cajamarca €182K.
- UTC Cajamarca's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.5 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FC Cajamarca goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 0–08%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: FC Cajamarca 1475 · UTC Cajamarca 1401
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Cajamarca · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 1573
UTC Cajamarca · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 1379
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Cajamarca
15th in Primera División · 28 pts from 29
- 18 OctLUCV Moquegua Peru Primera Division1449
- 10 OctDADT Peru Primera Division1476
- 19 SepLCusco Peru Primera Division1492
- 12 SepWClub Deportivo Los Chankas Peru Primera Division1480
- 4 SepLCienciano Peru Primera Division1509
UTC Cajamarca
18th in Primera División · 15 pts from 29
- 18 OctLCienciano Peru Primera Division1396
- 11 OctLSporting Cristal Peru Primera Division1384
- 20 SepLSport Huancayo Peru Primera Division1390
- 11 SepLJuan Pablo II College Peru Primera Division1423
- 4 SepLAlianza Atletico Peru Primera Division1414
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cajamarca | 28 /29 | 33.1 | 0% | 0% | 54% | 16th |
| UTC Cajamarca | 15 /29 | 19.6 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 18th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC Cajamarca: balanced profile (how Celso Rafael Ayala Gavilán plays) · UTC Cajamarca: balanced profile (how Cristián Molins plays)