Primera División · Clausura - 12
FC Cajamarca 0–1 UCV Moquegua
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 18:15 UTC · Estadio Heroes de San Ramon, Cajamarca
FC CajamarcaTeam 1414UCV MoqueguaTeam 1362Match story
FC Cajamarca · draw · UCV MoqueguaBefore kick-off: 44% · 26% · 31%
Last reading, 90+6': 0% · 1% · 99%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- Brayan Angulo 89'
We gave FC Cajamarca 44% to win: UCV Moquegua won.
- José Reinaldo Lugo Quiñónez 1152 −5 for P. Cejas 1372 058'FC Cajamarca:José Reinaldo Lugo Quiñónez 1152 −5 for P. Cejas 1372 0
- 67'Allonso Alberto Dávila Cárdenas 1248 +4* for Edgar Lastre 1499 +14UCV Moquegua:Allonso Alberto Dávila Cárdenas 1248 +4* for Edgar Lastre 1499 +14
- 72'Brayan Angulo 1485 +8 for Jeferson Collazos 1364 +18UCV Moquegua:Brayan Angulo 1485 +8 for Jeferson Collazos 1364 +18
- 73'Diego Ramírez 1345 +2 for Nicolas Chavez 1268 +23*UCV Moquegua:Diego Ramírez 1345 +2 for Nicolas Chavez 1268 +23*
- Jonathan Betancourt 1388 −11* for S. Enciso 1532 −1974'FC Cajamarca:Jonathan Betancourt 1388 −11* for S. Enciso 1532 −19
- Sebastien Pineau 1228 −8* for José Mauricio Arrasco Calderón 1573 −1187'FC Cajamarca:Sebastien Pineau 1228 −8* for José Mauricio Arrasco Calderón 1573 −11
- 89'Brayan Angulo 1485 +8 assist Allonso Alberto Dávila Cárdenas 1248 +4*UCV Moquegua:Brayan Angulo 1485 +8 assist Allonso Alberto Dávila Cárdenas 1248 +4*
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 44% · 26% · 31%(FC Cajamarca · draw · UCV Moquegua)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the result 0–1 had 5%.
- Average value of the starting XI: FC Cajamarca €209K, UCV Moquegua €229K.
- FC Cajamarca's expected eleven was out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.3 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FC Cajamarca
15th in Primera División · 28 pts from 28
- 10 OctDADT Peru Primera Division1476
- 19 SepLCusco Peru Primera Division1492
- 12 SepWClub Deportivo Los Chankas Peru Primera Division1480
- 4 SepLCienciano Peru Primera Division1509
- 28 AugWComerciantes Unidos Peru Primera Division1491
UCV Moquegua
17th in Primera División · 25 pts from 28
- 8 OctLCienciano Peru Primera Division1404
- 20 SepLJuan Pablo II College Peru Primera Division1443
- 13 SepLSporting Cristal Peru Primera Division1463
- 5 SepLCusco Peru Primera Division1446
- 30 AugLAlianza Atletico Peru Primera Division1500
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cajamarca | 28 /28 | 34.9 | 0% | 0% | 28% | 15th |
| UCV Moquegua | 25 /28 | 30.8 | 0% | 0% | 86% | 17th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FC Cajamarca · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 1584
UCV Moquegua · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1501
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FC Cajamarca: balanced profile (how Celso Rafael Ayala Gavilán plays) · UCV Moquegua: balanced profile (how Jaime César Santiago Serna Mozombite plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.