Primera División · Clausura - 14
FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos
Wed 28 Oct 2026 · 21:00 UTC
FBC Melgar host Comerciantes Unidos on Wed 28 Oct 2026 (Primera División); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: FBC Melgar 57%, draw 25%, Comerciantes Unidos 19%.
- Average value of the expected XI: FBC Melgar €577K, Comerciantes Unidos €331K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of the Primera División Clausura - 14: 204 points.
- Style contrast in attacking (Primera División): FBC Melgar rank #1 of 18, Comerciantes Unidos #18.
- FBC Melgar are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. FBC Melgar goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–010%
- 0–07%
- 3–06%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: FBC Melgar 1729 · Comerciantes Unidos 1525
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
FBC Melgar · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 1819
Comerciantes Unidos · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Good) · Elo 1747
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
FBC Melgar
3rd in Primera División · 50 pts from 29
- 17 OctWDeportivo Garcilaso Peru Primera Division1713
- 11 OctDUniversitario Peru Primera Division1727
- 20 SepDSport Boys Peru Primera Division1720
- 12 SepWCusco Peru Primera Division1711
- 6 SepWADT Peru Primera Division1710
Comerciantes Unidos
14th in Primera División · 31 pts from 29
- 18 OctLSporting Cristal Peru Primera Division1546
- 10 OctDJuan Pablo II College Peru Primera Division1509
- 18 SepLAlianza Atletico Peru Primera Division1524
- 12 SepLSport Huancayo Peru Primera Division1550
- 6 SepDUniversitario Peru Primera Division1536
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FBC Melgar | 50 /29 | 59.1 | 0% | 92% | 0% | 3rd |
| Comerciantes Unidos | 31 /29 | 36.8 | 0% | 0% | 8% | 14th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · low-block
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
FBC Melgar: balanced profile (how Miguel Ángel Rondelli plays) · Comerciantes Unidos: low-volume (how José Eugenio Hernández Sarmiento plays)