J1 League · Regular Season - 16
Fagiano Okayama vs Shimizu S-pulse
Wed 25 Nov 2026 · 10:00 UTC · City Light Stadium, Okayama
Fagiano Okayama host Shimizu S-pulse on Wed 25 Nov 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Fagiano Okayama 43%, draw 28%, Shimizu S-pulse 29%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Fagiano Okayama €466K, Shimizu S-pulse €499K.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Fagiano Okayama goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–011%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–19%
- 2–08%
- Other scores40%
Team Elo: Fagiano Okayama 1653 · Shimizu S-pulse 1623
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Fagiano Okayama · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1690
Shimizu S-pulse · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1642
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Fagiano Okayama
10th in J1 League · 17 pts from 14
- 7 NovDYokohama F. Marinos J1 League1633
- 31 OctLFC Tokyo J1 League1679
- 25 OctLKawasaki Frontale J1 League1665
- 21 OctWMito Hollyhock J1 League1675
- 18 OctLVissel Kobe J1 League1691
Shimizu S-pulse
15th in J1 League · 14 pts from 14
- 7 NovLTokyo Verdy J1 League1639
- 31 OctLKyoto Sanga J1 League1636
- 24 OctLSanfrecce Hiroshima J1 League1635
- 21 OctLMachida Zelvia J1 League1637
- 17 OctDGamba Osaka J1 League1660
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fagiano Okayama | 17 /14 | 45.9 | 0% | 0% | 6% | 12th |
| Shimizu S-pulse | 14 /14 | 41.3 | 0% | 0% | 21% | 16th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Fagiano Okayama: direct (how Takashi Kiyama plays) · Shimizu S-pulse: balanced profile (how Takayuki Yoshida plays)