J1 League · Regular Season - 11
Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock
Wed 21 Oct 2026 · 10:00 UTC · JFE Harenokuni Stadium, Okayama
Fagiano Okayama host Mito Hollyhock on Wed 21 Oct 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Fagiano Okayama 52%, draw 26%, Mito Hollyhock 22%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Fagiano Okayama €474K, Mito Hollyhock €378K.
- Mito Hollyhock's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.4 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Fagiano Okayama goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–26%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Fagiano Okayama 1688 · Mito Hollyhock 1551
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Fagiano Okayama · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1775
Mito Hollyhock · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1657
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Fagiano Okayama
11th in J1 League · 13 pts from 10
- 18 OctLVissel Kobe J1 League1703
- 10 OctLAvispa Fukuoka J1 League1696
- 19 SepLKyoto Sanga J1 League1738
- 13 SepWUrawa J1 League1686
- 6 SepWSanfrecce Hiroshima J1 League1645
Mito Hollyhock
14th in J1 League · 9 pts from 10
- 17 OctLUrawa J1 League1541
- 11 OctLShimizu S-pulse J1 League1536
- 19 SepLYokohama F. Marinos J1 League1617
- 12 SepLKawasaki Frontale J1 League1595
- 5 SepDAvispa Fukuoka J1 League1622
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fagiano Okayama | 13 /10 | 49.1 | 0% | 1% | 3% | 11th |
| Mito Hollyhock | 9 /10 | 37.0 | 0% | 0% | 47% | 18th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Fagiano Okayama: direct (how Takashi Kiyama plays) · Mito Hollyhock: balanced profile (how Daisuke Kimori plays)