UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3
Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen
Thu 22 Oct 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb host NEC Nijmegen on Thu 22 Oct 2026 (UEFA Europa League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Dinamo Zagreb 62%, draw 22%, NEC Nijmegen 15%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Dinamo Zagreb €3.8M, NEC Nijmegen €1.7M.
- HNL: D. Kotarski is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2054).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Dinamo Zagreb goals first.
- 1–111%
- 2–011%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–07%
- 3–17%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 1.0 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 4.5 pts
Team Elo: Dinamo Zagreb 2020 · NEC Nijmegen 1805
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Dinamo Zagreb · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Elite) · Elo 2075
NEC Nijmegen · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1913
Absences
Dinamo Zagreb
Ruled out
- I. NevistićOff the roster1971
- F. TopićOff the roster1881
- R. MudražijaOff the roster1602
- Paul Bismarck TabinasOff the roster1245
NEC Nijmegen
Ruled out
- P. SandlerInjury1933
- E. MorGroin Injury1801
- Adam TahauiOff the roster1739
- B. NuytinckAnkle Injury1488
- I. Hansen-AarøenOff the roster1193
Doubtful
- D. TadićInjury1755
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Dinamo Zagreb
2nd in HNL · 19 pts from 9
- 18 OctWNK Slaven Belupo HNL1991
- 15 OctWAnderlecht UEFA Europa League2039
- 10 OctLHNK Hajduk Split HNL1915
- 20 SepWNK Lokomotiva Zagreb HNL1956
- 16 SepDHapoel Beer Sheva UEFA Europa League2002
NEC Nijmegen
12th in Eredivisie · 10 pts from 9
- 18 OctDFortuna Sittard Eredivisie1842
- 15 OctDLevski Sofia UEFA Europa League1844
- 10 OctDAjax Eredivisie1821
- 20 SepDGO Ahead Eagles Eredivisie1789
- 17 SepLJuventus UEFA Europa League1800
League phase outlook
From the Europa League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Zagreb | 4 /2 | 11.9 | 12.2 | 75.1 | 12.7 |
| NEC Nijmegen | 1 /2 | 7.6 | 0.5 | 33.5 | 65.9 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Dinamo Zagreb: creative · possession-based (how Mario Kovačević plays) · NEC Nijmegen: balanced profile (how Dick Schreuder plays)