UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 5
Dinamo Zagreb vs Bayer Leverkusen
Thu 26 Nov 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb host Bayer Leverkusen on Thu 26 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Dinamo Zagreb 27%, draw 28%, Bayer Leverkusen 45%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Dinamo Zagreb €4.0M, Bayer Leverkusen €25.7M.
- Draw chance 28%, above the UEFA Europa League average of 22% this round.
- HNL: D. Kotarski is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2106).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Dinamo Zagreb goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–29%
- 2–27%
- 0–17%
- 2–17%
- 0–27%
- Other scores50%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 0.8 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–2expected 3.6 pts
Team Elo: Dinamo Zagreb 2032 · Bayer Leverkusen 2259
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Dinamo Zagreb · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Good) · Elo 2059
Bayer Leverkusen · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.2 (Elite) · Elo 2280
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Dinamo Zagreb
2nd in HNL · 25 pts from 12
- 8 NovWNK Varazdin HNL2019
- 5 NovWSunderland UEFA Europa League1943
- 31 OctLRudes HNL2041
- 27 OctWHNK Rijeka HNL2026
- 22 OctLNEC Nijmegen UEFA Europa League2058
Bayer Leverkusen
5th in Bundesliga · 16 pts from 9
- 8 NovW1. FC Köln Bundesliga2269
- 5 NovLMarseille UEFA Europa League2246
- 31 OctLVfB Stuttgart Bundesliga2282
- 28 OctW1. FC Nürnberg Germany DFB Pokal2222
- 25 OctL1899 Hoffenheim Bundesliga2312
League phase outlook
From the Europa League simulation, after 4 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Zagreb | 7 /4 | 12.1 | 11.1 | 79.7 | 9.3 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 9 /4 | 16.1 | 69.8 | 30.1 | 0.1 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Dinamo Zagreb: creative · possession-based (how Jerko Leko plays) · Bayer Leverkusen: possession-based · creative (how Carles Martínez plays)