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Championship · Regular Season - 11

Derby 0–1 Stoke City

Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Pride Park Stadium, Derby

Derby crestDerbyTeam 1794
0–1
Full time
HT 0–0
Stoke City crestStoke CityTeam 1978

Match story

Derby · draw · Stoke City

Before kick-off: 28% · 28% · 44%

Live chances: Derby 0%, draw 4%, Stoke City 96% at 90+4'2' · 0–0 · Derby 28%, draw 28%, Stoke City 44%3' · 0–0 · Derby 28%, draw 28%, Stoke City 44%4' · 0–0 · Derby 28%, draw 28%, Stoke City 44%5' · 0–0 · Derby 28%, draw 29%, Stoke City 43%6' · 0–0 · Derby 28%, draw 29%, Stoke City 43%7' · 0–0 · Derby 28%, draw 29%, Stoke City 43%8' · 0–0 · Derby 28%, draw 29%, Stoke City 43%9' · 0–0 · Derby 28%, draw 29%, Stoke City 43%10' · 0–0 · Derby 28%, draw 29%, Stoke City 43%11' · 0–0 · Derby 28%, draw 29%, Stoke City 43%12' · 0–0 · Derby 28%, draw 29%, Stoke City 43%13' · 0–0 · Derby 28%, draw 30%, Stoke City 43%14' · 0–0 · Derby 28%, draw 30%, Stoke City 42%15' · 0–0 · Derby 28%, draw 30%, Stoke City 42%17' · 0–0 · Derby 28%, draw 30%, Stoke City 42%18' · 0–0 · Derby 28%, draw 30%, Stoke City 42%19' · 0–0 · Derby 28%, draw 30%, Stoke City 42%20' · 0–0 · Derby 28%, draw 31%, Stoke City 42%21' · 0–0 · Derby 28%, draw 31%, Stoke City 42%22' · 0–0 · Derby 28%, draw 31%, Stoke City 41%23' · 0–0 · Derby 28%, draw 31%, Stoke City 41%24' · 0–0 · Derby 28%, draw 31%, Stoke City 41%25' · 0–0 · Derby 28%, draw 31%, Stoke City 41%26' · 0–0 · Derby 28%, draw 32%, Stoke City 41%27' · 0–0 · Derby 28%, draw 32%, Stoke City 41%28' · 0–0 · Derby 28%, draw 32%, Stoke City 40%29' · 0–0 · Derby 27%, draw 32%, Stoke City 40%30' · 0–0 · Derby 27%, draw 32%, Stoke City 40%32' · 0–0 · Derby 27%, draw 33%, Stoke City 40%33' · 0–0 · Derby 27%, draw 33%, Stoke City 40%34' · 0–0 · Derby 27%, draw 33%, Stoke City 39%35' · 0–0 · Derby 27%, draw 34%, Stoke City 39%36' · 0–0 · Derby 27%, draw 34%, Stoke City 39%37' · 0–0 · Derby 27%, draw 34%, Stoke City 39%38' · 0–0 · Derby 27%, draw 34%, Stoke City 39%39' · 0–0 · Derby 27%, draw 35%, Stoke City 39%40' · 0–0 · Derby 27%, draw 35%, Stoke City 38%41' · 0–0 · Derby 27%, draw 35%, Stoke City 38%42' · 0–0 · Derby 27%, draw 35%, Stoke City 38%43' · 0–0 · Derby 27%, draw 36%, Stoke City 38%44' · 0–0 · Derby 26%, draw 36%, Stoke City 37%45+1' · 0–0 · Derby 26%, draw 37%, Stoke City 37%45+2' · 0–0 · Derby 26%, draw 37%, Stoke City 37%45+3' · 0–0 · Derby 26%, draw 37%, Stoke City 37%45+4' · 0–0 · Derby 26%, draw 38%, Stoke City 36%HT · 0–0 · Derby 26%, draw 38%, Stoke City 36%47' · 0–0 · Derby 26%, draw 38%, Stoke City 36%48' · 0–0 · Derby 26%, draw 38%, Stoke City 36%49' · 0–0 · Derby 26%, draw 39%, Stoke City 36%50' · 0–0 · Derby 26%, draw 39%, Stoke City 35%51' · 0–1 · Derby 9%, draw 23%, Stoke City 69%52' · 0–1 · Derby 9%, draw 23%, Stoke City 69%53' · 0–1 · Derby 8%, draw 23%, Stoke City 69%54' · 0–1 · Derby 8%, draw 23%, Stoke City 69%55' · 0–1 · Derby 8%, draw 22%, Stoke City 70%56' · 0–1 · Derby 8%, draw 22%, Stoke City 70%57' · 0–1 · Derby 7%, draw 22%, Stoke City 70%58' · 0–1 · Derby 7%, draw 22%, Stoke City 71%59' · 0–1 · Derby 7%, draw 22%, Stoke City 71%60' · 0–1 · Derby 7%, draw 22%, Stoke City 71%61' · 0–1 · Derby 7%, draw 22%, Stoke City 72%62' · 0–1 · Derby 6%, draw 22%, Stoke City 72%63' · 0–1 · Derby 6%, draw 22%, Stoke City 72%64' · 0–1 · Derby 6%, draw 21%, Stoke City 73%65' · 0–1 · Derby 6%, draw 21%, Stoke City 73%66' · 0–1 · Derby 5%, draw 21%, Stoke City 73%67' · 0–1 · Derby 5%, draw 21%, Stoke City 74%69' · 0–1 · Derby 5%, draw 21%, Stoke City 75%70' · 0–1 · Derby 5%, draw 20%, Stoke City 75%71' · 0–1 · Derby 4%, draw 20%, Stoke City 76%72' · 0–1 · Derby 4%, draw 20%, Stoke City 76%73' · 0–1 · Derby 4%, draw 19%, Stoke City 77%74' · 0–1 · Derby 4%, draw 19%, Stoke City 77%75' · 0–1 · Derby 3%, draw 19%, Stoke City 78%76' · 0–1 · Derby 3%, draw 18%, Stoke City 78%77' · 0–1 · Derby 3%, draw 18%, Stoke City 79%78' · 0–1 · Derby 3%, draw 18%, Stoke City 80%79' · 0–1 · Derby 3%, draw 17%, Stoke City 80%80' · 0–1 · Derby 2%, draw 17%, Stoke City 81%81' · 0–1 · Derby 2%, draw 16%, Stoke City 82%82' · 0–1 · Derby 2%, draw 16%, Stoke City 83%83' · 0–1 · Derby 2%, draw 15%, Stoke City 83%84' · 0–1 · Derby 2%, draw 14%, Stoke City 84%85' · 0–1 · Derby 1%, draw 14%, Stoke City 85%86' · 0–1 · Derby 1%, draw 13%, Stoke City 86%87' · 0–1 · Derby 1%, draw 12%, Stoke City 87%88' · 0–1 · Derby 1%, draw 11%, Stoke City 88%89' · 0–1 · Derby 1%, draw 10%, Stoke City 89%90' · 0–1 · Derby 1%, draw 9%, Stoke City 90%90+1' · 0–1 · Derby 0%, draw 8%, Stoke City 92%90+2' · 0–1 · Derby 0%, draw 7%, Stoke City 93%90+3' · 0–1 · Derby 0%, draw 5%, Stoke City 94%90+4' · 0–1 · Derby 0%, draw 4%, Stoke City 96%

Last reading, 90+4': 0% · 4% · 96%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Stoke City 44% to win: they did.

  1. 38'Stoke City:Luca Bombino 2102 +12 for Eric Junior Bocat 1975 +5
  2. 45'Stoke City:George Hirst 2061 +4 for Jack Mcglynn 2127 +9
  3. 49'Stoke City:Luke Graham 1969 +37 assist Ethan Galbraith 2109 +21
  4. 52'Derby:Rhian Brewster 1985 −4 for Lewis Travis 1880 −4
  5. 68'Stoke City:Maksym Taloverov 1985 +8 for Bosun Lawal 1909 +32
  6. 68'Stoke City:Róbert Boženík 1741 +5 for Lamine Cissé 1904 +12
  7. 73'Derby:Henrik Wendel Meister 1530 0 for Mohammed Fuseini 1957 −7
  8. 76'Derby:D. Ozoh 1881 −4
  9. 87'Stoke City:Junior Tchamadeu 1931 0 for Justin Devenny 1921 +15
  10. 87'Derby:Lars-Jørgen Salvesen 1639 −2 for Sammie Szmodics 1843 −4
  11. 87'Derby:Filip Bilbija 1928 0 for Ryan Hedges 1812 −3
  12. 87'Derby:Corey Blackett-Taylor 1632 −9* for Bobby Clark 1893 −4

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations3-4-3
GJ. Vickers1827−1
DJ. Ward1891−16
DR. Nyambe1729−1
DD. Sanderson1902−15
DR. Hedges1812−3
ML. Travis1880−4
MD. Ozoh1881−4
MM. Fuseini1957−7
MS. Szmodics1843−4
MB. Clark1893−4
FC. Morris1880−14
CJ. Eustace1872−6
GV. Johansson2098+15
DB. Lawal1909+32
DB. Wilmot2071+25
DL. Graham1969+37
MB. Johnson2084+24
MEl Hadji Djibril Soumaré1865+17
ME. Galbraith2109+21
ME. Bocat1975+5
FJ. McGlynn2127+9
FL. Cissé1904+12
FJ. Devenny1921+15
CM. Robins1999+22
Before kick-off: 28% · 28% · 44%(Derby · draw · Stoke City)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 0–1 had 9%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Derby €2.5M, Stoke City €2.9M.
  • Derby were without 1 expected starter: S. Langås (1903).

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Derby

23rd in Championship · 6 pts from 10

  • 14 OctLQPR 1891
  • 10 OctDWrexham 1900
  • 19 SepDBurnley 1874
  • 12 SepLBirmingham 1866
  • 9 SepLWest Brom 1892

Stoke City

9th in Championship · 16 pts from 10

  • 13 OctLMiddlesbrough 1986
  • 10 OctWBolton 1975
  • 19 SepWSheffield Utd 1938
  • 12 SepWWatford 1904
  • 8 SepDCardiff 1909

Season outlook

From the Championship simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Derby6 /1047.40%0%54%23rd
Stoke City16 /1065.71%8%1%9th
Derby
Stoke City

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Championship

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

L. Travis
L. Travis

Derby · +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1884

J. McGlynn
J. McGlynn

Stoke City · +4.9 (Elite) · Elo 2117

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

John Mark Eustace

Coach DNA: direct

Mark Gordon Robins

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Derby: direct (how John Mark Eustace plays) · Stoke City: balanced profile (how Mark Gordon Robins plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.