Primera División · Clausura - 13
Cusco vs Sporting Cristal
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 20:15 UTC · Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco
Cusco host Sporting Cristal on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Primera División); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Cusco 32%, draw 29%, Sporting Cristal 39%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Cusco €435K, Sporting Cristal €685K.
- All 11 of Cusco's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
- Sporting Cristal have won their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Cusco goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–19%
- 0–09%
- 1–29%
- 1–08%
- 2–18%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Cusco 1618 · Sporting Cristal 1675
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Cusco · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Good) · Elo 1654
Sporting Cristal · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 1671
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Cusco
7th in Primera División · 45 pts from 29
- 16 OctLSport Huancayo Peru Primera Division1643
- 11 OctLAlianza Lima Peru Primera Division1666
- 19 SepWFC Cajamarca Peru Primera Division1655
- 12 SepLFBC Melgar Peru Primera Division1667
- 5 SepWUCV Moquegua Peru Primera Division1663
Sporting Cristal
8th in Primera División · 44 pts from 29
- 18 OctWComerciantes Unidos Peru Primera Division1675
- 11 OctWUTC Cajamarca Peru Primera Division1673
- 19 SepWAtletico Grau Peru Primera Division1654
- 13 SepWUCV Moquegua Peru Primera Division1642
- 6 SepWClub Deportivo Los Chankas Peru Primera Division1620
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cusco | 45 /29 | 52.6 | 0% | 10% | 0% | 6th |
| Sporting Cristal | 44 /29 | 52.0 | 0% | 11% | 0% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Cusco: possession-based · low-block (how Alejandro Miguel Orfila Colmenares plays) · Sporting Cristal: balanced profile (how Roberto Orlando Mosquera Vera plays)