UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 4
CSKA Sofia vs Trabzonspor
Thu 26 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Stadion Balgarska Armia, Sofia
CSKA Sofia host Trabzonspor on Thu 26 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa Conference League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: CSKA Sofia 20%, draw 25%, Trabzonspor 55%.
- Average value of the expected XI: CSKA Sofia €1.4M, Trabzonspor €6.0M.
- First League: F. Lapoukhov is the highest-rated goalkeeper (1918).
- Trabzonspor's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.1 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. CSKA Sofia goals first.
- 1–112%
- 0–111%
- 0–210%
- 1–210%
- 0–07%
- 0–36%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl0–1expected 4.2 pts
Team Elo: CSKA Sofia 1815 · Trabzonspor 2162
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
CSKA Sofia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Good) · Elo 1918
Trabzonspor · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.0 (Elite) · Elo 2325
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
CSKA Sofia
1st in First League · 34 pts from 14
- 8 NovWLevski Sofia Bulgarian First League1808
- 5 NovLPanathinaikos UEFA Conference League1791
- 31 OctDSlavia Sofia Bulgarian First League1839
- 26 OctWLudogorets Bulgarian First League1822
- 22 OctDFC Nordsjaelland UEFA Conference League1808
Trabzonspor
2nd in Süper Lig · 25 pts from 11
- 8 NovWAlanyaspor Turkey Super Lig2169
- 5 NovLSC Freiburg UEFA Conference League2168
- 1 NovWGaziantep FK Turkey Super Lig2155
- 26 OctWRizespor Turkey Super Lig2189
- 22 OctWHeart Of Midlothian UEFA Conference League2038
League phase outlook
From the Conference League simulation, after 3 of 6 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia | 1 /3 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 44.9 | 55.1 |
| Trabzonspor | 6 /3 | 12.1 | 56.1 | 43.7 | 0.2 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
CSKA Sofia: creative · shot-heavy (how Markus Gisdol plays) · Trabzonspor: possession-based (how Thomas Reis plays)