UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3
Como vs Manchester United
Wed 21 Oct 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como
Como host Manchester United on Wed 21 Oct 2026 (UEFA Champions League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Como 38%, draw 29%, Manchester United 33%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Como €25.9M, Manchester United €32.8M.
- Como are without 1 expected starter: Assane Diao (2213).
- Manchester United are without 1 expected starter: L. Yoro (2324).
- Home advantage makes Como the favourite here: it adds 9 points to their win chance.
- Draw chance 29%, above the UEFA Champions League average of 23% this round.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Como goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–18%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.7 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–1expected 3.3 pts
Team Elo: Como 2286 · Manchester United 2361
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches; in for ruled-out starters: M. Baturina for Assane Diao, L. Shaw for L. Yoro.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Como · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Elite) · Elo 2400
Manchester United · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Good) · Elo 2408
Absences
Como
Ruled out
- M. CaqueretOff the roster2262
- Assane DiaoThigh Injury2213
- E. GoldanigaOff the roster1963
- J. AddaiOff the roster1926
- Willy Kambwala NdengushiOff the roster1629
Doubtful
- T. ChalobahInjury2428
- M. KeanLeg Injury2171
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Como
5th in Serie A · 14 pts from 7
- 18 OctWFiorentina Serie A2226
- 14 OctLFeyenoord UEFA Champions League2264
- 11 OctDAS Roma Serie A2295
- 20 SepLFrosinone Serie A2303
- 14 SepWParma Serie A2271
Manchester United
13th in Premier League · 7 pts from 7
- 18 OctDLeeds Premier League2376
- 13 OctLAtletico Madrid UEFA Champions League2365
- 10 OctDTottenham Premier League2404
- 20 SepDFulham Premier League2414
- 16 SepLBrighton England League Cup2242
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Como | 3 /2 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 67.7 | 24.1 |
| Manchester United | 3 /2 | 12.2 | 18.0 | 68.2 | 13.8 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Como: possession-based (how Francesc Fàbregas i Soler plays) · Manchester United: creative (how Michael Carrick plays)