UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 5
Como vs AEK Athens FC
Tue 24 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como
Como host AEK Athens FC on Tue 24 Nov 2026 (UEFA Champions League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Como 65%, draw 21%, AEK Athens FC 14%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Como €20.1M, AEK Athens FC €5.1M.
- Como's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.4 over 180 days.
- AEK Athens FC's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.6 over 180 days.
- All 11 of AEK Athens FC's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Como goals first.
- 2–011%
- 1–010%
- 1–110%
- 2–110%
- 3–08%
- 3–17%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–0expected 1.1 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 4.8 pts
Team Elo: Como 2331 · AEK Athens FC 2075
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Como · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.2 (Elite) · Elo 2455
AEK Athens FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Elite) · Elo 2053
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Como
5th in Serie A · 23 pts from 11
- 8 NovLInter Serie A2367
- 4 NovWLens UEFA Champions League2333
- 1 NovWVenezia Serie A2312
- 27 OctWTorino Serie A2319
- 24 OctWSassuolo Serie A2236
AEK Athens FC
3rd in Super League 1 · 20 pts from 9
- 8 NovWLevadiakos Greece Super League2038
- 4 NovLReal Madrid UEFA Champions League2057
- 1 NovLPanathinaikos Greece Super League2119
- 24 OctWPanetolikos Greece Super League2043
- 20 OctLManchester City UEFA Champions League2074
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 4 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Como | 9 /4 | 14.2 | 35.9 | 63.9 | 0.2 |
| AEK Athens FC | 3 /4 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 14.1 | 86.0 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Como: possession-based (how Cesc Fàbregas plays) · AEK Athens FC: creative · possession-based (how Marko Nikolić plays)