Primera División · Clausura - 13
Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano
Mon 26 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra, Cutervo
Comerciantes Unidos host Cienciano on Mon 26 Oct 2026 (Primera División); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Comerciantes Unidos 30%, draw 29%, Cienciano 41%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Comerciantes Unidos €331K, Cienciano €297K.
- Style contrast in dribbling (Primera División): Comerciantes Unidos rank #1 of 18, Cienciano #15.
- All 11 of Cienciano's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Comerciantes Unidos goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–19%
- 1–29%
- 0–09%
- 1–08%
- 0–27%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Comerciantes Unidos 1525 · Cienciano 1608
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Comerciantes Unidos · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Good) · Elo 1747
Cienciano · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Average) · Elo 1684
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Comerciantes Unidos
14th in Primera División · 31 pts from 29
- 18 OctLSporting Cristal Peru Primera Division1546
- 10 OctDJuan Pablo II College Peru Primera Division1509
- 18 SepLAlianza Atletico Peru Primera Division1524
- 12 SepLSport Huancayo Peru Primera Division1550
- 6 SepDUniversitario Peru Primera Division1536
Cienciano
5th in Primera División · 47 pts from 29
- 18 OctWUTC Cajamarca Peru Primera Division1587
- 8 OctWUCV Moquegua Peru Primera Division1581
- 30 SepDClub Deportivo Los Chankas Peru Primera Division1613
- 23 SepLADT Peru Primera Division1619
- 18 SepLAtletico Torque Copa Sudamericana1635
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comerciantes Unidos | 31 /29 | 36.8 | 0% | 0% | 8% | 14th |
| Cienciano | 47 /29 | 53.8 | 0% | 21% | 0% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Comerciantes Unidos: low-volume (how José Eugenio Hernández Sarmiento plays) · Cienciano: balanced profile (how Horacio Melgarejo plays)