UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3
Club Brugge KV vs Lens
Wed 21 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Jan Breydel Stadium, Bruges
Club Brugge KV host Lens on Wed 21 Oct 2026 (UEFA Champions League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Club Brugge KV 53%, draw 26%, Lens 21%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Club Brugge KV €9.7M, Lens €9.6M.
- Pro League: Y. Sommer is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2330).
- Club Brugge KV's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Club Brugge KV goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–110%
- 1–010%
- 2–010%
- 0–07%
- 1–26%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.9 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 4.1 pts
Team Elo: Club Brugge KV 2182 · Lens 2077
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Club Brugge KV · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.2 (Good) · Elo 2335
Lens · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 2170
Absences
Club Brugge KV
Ruled out
- J. OrdoñezFoot Injury2407
Lens
Ruled out
- A. SimaMuscle Injury2095
- M. NawrockiKnee Injury2023
Doubtful
- I. GaniouKnee Injury2225
- R. AguilarAnkle Injury2116
- J. GraditMuscle Injury2083
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Club Brugge KV
2nd in Pro League · 21 pts from 8
- 13 OctWInter UEFA Champions League2207
- 10 OctWRAAL La Louvière Belgium Pro League2205
- 20 SepWGenk Belgium Pro League2181
- 13 SepWAntwerp Belgium Pro League2153
- 8 SepLAston Villa UEFA Champions League2182
Lens
8th in Ligue 1 · 10 pts from 7
- 17 OctWEstac Troyes Ligue 12047
- 13 OctLSporting CP UEFA Champions League2120
- 9 OctWLyon Ligue 12037
- 18 SepLMonaco Ligue 12045
- 13 SepDLe Mans Ligue 12076
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge KV | 3 /2 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 68.0 | 22.4 |
| Lens | 3 /2 | 8.5 | 1.3 | 39.4 | 59.3 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Club Brugge KV: possession-based · creative (how Ivan Leko plays) · Lens: balanced profile (how Dino Nicolas Toppmöller plays)