Primera División · Clausura - 12
Cienciano 1–0 UTC Cajamarca
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 23:30 UTC · Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco
CiencianoTeam 1549UTC CajamarcaTeam 1343Match story
Cienciano · draw · UTC CajamarcaBefore kick-off: 59% · 22% · 19%
Last reading, 90+4': 97% · 3% · 0%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- Cristian Souza 55'
We gave Cienciano 59% to win: they did.
- Matias Succar 1651 +3 for Ray Sandoval 1408 +545'Cienciano:Matias Succar 1651 +3 for Ray Sandoval 1408 +5
- Carlos Cabello 1649 −6* for Claudio Nuñez 1580 +1045'Cienciano:Carlos Cabello 1649 −6* for Claudio Nuñez 1580 +10
- Cristian Souza 1684 +12 assist Carlos Garcés 1556 +1655'Cienciano:Cristian Souza 1684 +12 assist Carlos Garcés 1556 +16
- Marcos Martinich 1692 +1257'Cienciano:Marcos Martinich 1692 +12
- Carlos Garcés 1556 +1661'Cienciano:Carlos Garcés 1556 +16
- 61'Arquímedes Figuera 1150 −10UTC Cajamarca:Arquímedes Figuera 1150 −10
- 65'Cristián MolinsUTC Cajamarca:Cristián Molins
- 69'Luis Arce 1441 −12* for Joshua Cantt 1271 0UTC Cajamarca:Luis Arce 1441 −12* for Joshua Cantt 1271 0
- Henry Caparo 1621 +2 for Gerson Barreto 1604 −5*69'Cienciano:Henry Caparo 1621 +2 for Gerson Barreto 1604 −5*
- Santiago Arias 1585 −3*70'Cienciano:Santiago Arias 1585 −3*
- 75'Abdiel Arroyo 1295 −4 for Marlon de Jesús 1376 −7UTC Cajamarca:Abdiel Arroyo 1295 −4 for Marlon de Jesús 1376 −7
- 78'Arquímedes Figuera 1150 −10UTC Cajamarca:Arquímedes Figuera 1150 −10
- Gonzalo Aguirre 1456 +1 for Santiago Arias 1585 −3*81'Cienciano:Gonzalo Aguirre 1456 +1 for Santiago Arias 1585 −3*
- Didier La Torre 1454 +1 for Carlos Garcés 1556 +1681'Cienciano:Didier La Torre 1454 +1 for Carlos Garcés 1556 +16
- 87'Jhosep Nunez 1231 0 for Adolfo Muñoz 1443 −1UTC Cajamarca:Jhosep Nunez 1231 0 for Adolfo Muñoz 1443 −1
- 88'Dylan Caro 1527 −8* for Francesco Cavagna 1403 0UTC Cajamarca:Dylan Caro 1527 −8* for Francesco Cavagna 1403 0
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 59% · 22% · 19%(Cienciano · draw · UTC Cajamarca)
Our most likely score was 2–1 (10%); the result 1–0 had 6%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Cienciano €292K, UTC Cajamarca €203K.
- UTC Cajamarca's expected eleven was out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -2.0 over 180 days.
- All 11 of Cienciano's expected starters were past their position's peak age.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Cienciano
7th in Primera División · 44 pts from 28
- 8 OctWUCV Moquegua Peru Primera Division1581
- 30 SepDClub Deportivo Los Chankas Peru Primera Division1613
- 23 SepLADT Peru Primera Division1619
- 18 SepLAtletico Torque Copa Sudamericana1635
- 11 SepWAtletico Torque Copa Sudamericana1622
UTC Cajamarca
18th in Primera División · 15 pts from 28
- 11 OctLSporting Cristal Peru Primera Division1384
- 20 SepLSport Huancayo Peru Primera Division1390
- 11 SepLJuan Pablo II College Peru Primera Division1423
- 4 SepLAlianza Atletico Peru Primera Division1414
- 29 AugLUniversitario Peru Primera Division1434
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cienciano | 44 /28 | 52.8 | 0% | 16% | 0% | 5th |
| UTC Cajamarca | 15 /28 | 20.5 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 18th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Cienciano · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Average) · Elo 1672
UTC Cajamarca · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 1386
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Cienciano: balanced profile (how Horacio Melgarejo plays) · UTC Cajamarca: balanced profile (how Cristián Molins plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.